The price of Ethereum’s native token, Ether (ETH) is trading around a 15-month low versus Bitcoin (BTC), and the lowest since Ethereum switched to proof-of-stake (PoS).
Cointelegraph takes a closer look at some of the reasons for the continuous drop of the ETH/BTC pair.
Ether’s historical price action has changed
In previous market cycles, Ethereum often outperformed BTC during bullish market trends, but this relationship began to change at the start of 2023. Ether and numerous altcoins struggled as the narrative around altcoins use within Web3, DeFi and NFTs came under pressure in 2022 and 2023.
Stringent regulations against the crypto industry, severely muted inflows from retail and institutional investors, an uptick in investors seeking shelter in US-dollar-pegged stablecoins also impacted sentiment for Etheruem.
Bitcoin dominance rises
In addition to a change in Ether’s performance in its BTC pair, ETH was negatively impacted by the steady rise in Bitcoin dominance. As reported by Cointelegraph,
“Bitcoin’s market dominance has reached 54%, its highest in the last 30 months, indicating the top cryptocurrency is strengthening just before the halving event scheduled for April 2024.”
Bitcoin dominance is a measure of BTC’s market capitalization relative to the overall crypto market and it highlights the assets’s strength and if often used by investors as a sentiment gauge. With the Bitcoin halving fast approaching (April 2024) and investors’ belief that a spot BTC ETF is imminent, the drop in Ether’s value in its BTC pair suggests that investors feel more bullish about BTC and possibly allocating less money to Ether investments.
Related: Bitcoin dominance hits 54% — Highest in 2.5 years as BTC halving approaches
Ethereum price breaks below critical support vs. Bitcoin
The ETH/BTC pair dropped to 0.050 BTC on Oct. 23 and has remained in a downtrend since then. A notable occurrence was the pair’s fall below its 200-week exponential moving average near 0.058 BTC,which raises the possibility for further downside in the short-term.
According to Cointegraph contributor Yashu Gola,
“The 200-week EMA has historically served as a reliable support level for ETH/BTC bulls. For instance, the pair rebounded 75% three months after testing the wave support in July 2022. Conversely, it dropped over 25% after losing the same support in October 2020.”
These factors are likely to continue impacting Ethereum's price relative to Bitcoin. The multifaceted market dynamics, investor sentiment and staunch regulatory environment could remain the dominant headwinds against the ETH/BTC pair for the foreseeable future.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.