Because it's fairly clear we've now seen this cycle's bull market excessive, I've created an up to date halving-cycle mannequin constructed on 4 Bitcoin cycles.
The mannequin initiatives a cycle low close to $35,000 in December 2026 after a 72.5% drawdown from a $126,219 cycle excessive.
Contained in the halving-cycle framework
My final mannequin appropriately marked each the 2021 and 2025 high timeframes. The brand new framework, “Akiba Cycle Mannequin v2,” combines a 50,000-run Monte Carlo simulation with walk-forward validation and leave-one-out cross-validation (LOOCV).
It breaks the cycle into three linked elements: drawdown from a bull-market excessive to the following cycle low, the variety of days from a halving to that low, and the restoration a number of from the low into the following halving.
The drawdown and timing elements produced smaller historic errors than the restoration leg. That restoration leg drove the biggest miss in its out-of-sample take a look at.
The mannequin begins from an empirical sample in prior cycles through which peak-to-trough drawdowns have eased every period whereas nonetheless remaining deep.
Historic drawdowns from the bull excessive to the cycle low have been 94.1% within the first cycle, 88.2% within the second, 83.7% within the third, and 77.6% within the fourth, based mostly on the cycle taxonomy used within the accompanying chart.
The fitted projection for the fifth cycle facilities on a 72.5% drawdown, with a simulated band from 71.9–73.1%.
That drawdown distribution is tight as a result of the monotone decay holds throughout all 4 observations. Its LOOCV root-mean-square error is 0.63 proportion factors.
Utilizing the bull-market excessive of $126,219, the implied cycle-low value distribution clusters across the mid-$30,000s.
The median simulated low is about $34,700, with a $33,900–$35,500 P10–P90 vary.
Timing factors to late 2026
I additionally mapped how lengthy it takes the market to achieve the cycle low after a halving.
The times from halving to cycle low stepped from 778 days in cycle 1 to 784 days in cycle 2, then to 890 days in cycle 3 and 923 days in cycle 4.
The fifth-cycle estimate facilities on 980 days after the April 2024 halving, which maps to December 2026. The P10–P90 window spans November 2026 via January 2027.
The LOOCV timing error is wider than drawdown, at 37 days. That displays variance within the lengthening sample, together with the six-day increment between the primary two cycles.
A condensed view of the cycle historical past used within the mannequin is beneath.
| Cycle | Halving date | Halving value | Bull excessive | Cycle low | Low vs. excessive | Days to excessive | Days to low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H1 | Nov 2012 | $12.56 | $31.91 | $1.87 | 94.1% | 613 | 778 |
| H2 | Jul 2016 | $650 | $1,230 | $146 | 88.2% | 363 | 784 |
| H3 | Could 2020 | $9,790 | $19,172 | $3,122 | 83.7% | 522 | 890 |
| H4 | Apr 2024 | $65,000 | $68,998 | $15,474 | 77.6% | 555 | 923 |
| H5 | Late Mar (est.) | ? | $126,219 | ? | ~72.5% | 537 | ~980 |
Restoration a number of drives the widest uncertainty
The restoration leg is the portion that the mannequin treats as least secure. It estimates the a number of from a cycle low to the following halving value, a pathway that has compressed over time within the historic sequence.
The low-to-next-halving multiples have been 347.8x into H2, 67.2x into H3, and 20.8x into H4, with a central estimate close to 5.0x into H5.
As a result of that part has solely three historic observations and failed its walk-forward take a look at, the simulation makes use of a large uncertainty band for the H5 halving value.
Its P10–P90 vary runs from $60,000 to $489,000, with a median of $172,000.
I constructed and ran the backtest myself to pressure-test the mannequin throughout prior cycles, making clear the place its assumptions tracked actuality, and the place they started to interrupt down. The backtest is specific about the place the method held up.
Coaching on cycles 1 via 3 and predicting cycle 4, the mannequin produced a 78.2% drawdown estimate, in contrast with an noticed 77.6%, a 0.7 percentage-point hole.
It additionally projected 929 days to the cycle low versus an noticed 923 days, a six-day hole.
In value phrases, it projected a cycle low of $15,012 versus an noticed $15,474, a 3% miss.
The identical train underpredicted the restoration a number of by 38% (13.0x predicted versus 20.8x noticed). That miss then propagated into a bigger error on the implied halving value.
These diagnostics form how the outputs are introduced.
The mannequin treats the cycle-low estimate as the first forecastable variable and frames the next-halving value as situation house.
The Monte Carlo engine samples from an ensemble of easy purposeful varieties (linear matches, exponential decay, and average-decrement variants), injects noise calibrated to LOOCV residuals, and makes use of jackknife resampling of the four-cycle dataset to emphasize sensitivity to anyone period.
It additionally clamps outputs to bounds outlined within the notes. It then chains the drawdown, timing, and restoration attracts to provide a joint distribution.
A snapshot of the fifth-cycle distribution outputs is beneath.
| Output | P10 | P25 | P50 | P75 | P90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drawdown from bull excessive | 71.9% | 72.2% | 72.5% | 72.9% | 73.1% |
| Cycle low value | $34K | $34K | $35K | $35K | $35K |
| Days from H4 to cycle low | 952 | 965 | 980 | 996 | 1,011 |
| Cycle-low window | Nov 2026 | Dec 2026 | Dec 2026 | Jan 2027 | Jan 2027 |
| H5 halving value | $60K | $98K | $172K | $298K | $489K |
The notes additionally embrace two likelihood statements derived from the simulated distribution set: a 64.4% probability that the H5 halving value exceeds $126,219, and a 100% probability that the cycle low stays above $20,000 below the mannequin’s structural ground assumptions.
Each claims are conditional on the mannequin design, together with its small-sample calibration and its independence assumption. That assumption treats drawdown, timing, and restoration as separable random attracts regardless that they will co-move.
The observations underpinning the cycle taxonomy assist clarify why the mannequin focuses on drawdowns and elapsed time relatively than peak returns.
Peak good points relative to the prior halving value have compressed every period, transferring from 10,375% in cycle 2 to about 2,900% in cycle 3 and 632% in cycle 4.
Within the notes, the present cycle’s bull excessive is ready at 103% over the prior halving value.
On the similar time, the halving-to-high interval lengthened from 363 days after the primary halving to 522 days after the second and 555 days after the third.
Below the chosen information factors, the mannequin locations the fifth-cycle bull-market excessive at 537 days after the April 2024 halving.
The mannequin documentation lists a number of limitations that may change how these distributions must be learn.
It makes use of 4 cycles in whole, so its tails can understate outcomes outdoors the historic vary.
It additionally doesn’t account for regime variables similar to ETF circulation patterns, custody construction, or macro correlation inputs like charges and liquidity.
The restoration module is flagged as the principle supply of uncertainty, for the reason that walk-forward take a look at confirmed that cycle-shape extrapolation didn’t seize the cycle 4 restoration a number of.
For market individuals who deal with halving-era habits as a repeatable template, the v2 framework formalizes two prior-cycle regularities: a drifting drawdown charge and a lengthening path to the cycle low.
It leaves the next-halving value as a large distribution relatively than some extent name.
The mannequin’s median path locations the following cycle low within the mid-$30,000s round December 2026. It leaves the halving-5 value as an end result band anchored at $172,000 in the course of a $60,000 to $489,000 vary, with the caveat within the notes that it isn’t monetary recommendation.
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