My $49k Bitcoin bear thesis, a January check-in, the plumbing is flashing whereas worth bleeds
I wrote my medium-term $49,000 bear thesis in late November with one easy concept, Bitcoin nonetheless strikes in cycles, and the subsequent actual “that is the low” second tends to reach when miner economics and flows line up on the similar time.
It’s now Jan. 30, 2026, and the sincere replace is that this, the variables I care about look extra pressured than they did after I printed, and the tape has not delivered the form of panic worth print that makes these variables matter to everybody without delay.
Considerably paradoxically, my ‘medium-term bear thesis' was meant to be long-term bullish. The thought being that we might get a brief, sharp bear market with max ache adopted by a sustained, multi-year bull run. Nevertheless, the worth isn't fairly matching with the indicators proper now.
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Akiba's medium term $49k Bitcoin bear thesis – why this winter will be the shortest yet
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Bitcoin is hovering across the low $80,000s (after falling to $81,000 in a single day) as I write this, which suggests my high-$40ks zone has not even come into sight but.
That disconnect is the story.
As a result of beneath the worth, the components of the system that pay for Bitcoin’s safety, and the components that transfer institutional dimension, are performing like winter already arrived.
The winter feeling is coming from charges, not the chart
Begin with the safety price range, as a result of that was my unique “fragility” declare.
On Jan. 29, miners earned about $37.22 million in every day income.
On the identical date, whole transaction charges paid per day had been about $260,550.
Do the mathematics and also you get the temper music, charges are roughly 0.7% of miner income.
That isn’t “charges are weak,” that’s “charges are mainly absent,” within the sense that the price market is contributing virtually nothing to the price of securing the chain on a day-to-day foundation.
Even the reside mempool image seems to be sleepy. The projected next-block median price charge is round 0.12 to 0.14 sat/vB proper now.
So when folks ask why I preserve circling again to miner economics, it’s as a result of that is what a price flooring failing seems to be like in actual time. The community leans on issuance, issuance steps down on schedule, and the whole lot else has to select up the slack later.
The ETF window has been a gradual leak, with a couple of ugly gulps
The second leg of my framework was circulate elasticity, the concept the ETF period creates a clear, mechanical technique to see danger urge for food flip.
In January, that elasticity has been pointing within the mistaken course.
On Farside, the previous few weeks present a number of heavy outflow prints, together with -$708.7M on Jan. 21 and -$817.8M on Jan. 29.
Complete web flows are additionally unfavourable at -$1.095B year-to-date. That issues greater than any single day as a result of it adjustments the psychology of dips. Within the soft-landing model of my thesis, the tape will get help from persistent dip shopping for by means of the ETF pipe. Proper now, the pipe has been taking water out.
There have been huge inexperienced days earlier within the month too, Jan. 13 at +$753.8M and Jan. 14 at +$840.6M, and people are actual, however the late-month circulate prints have been the sort you are feeling on a desk.
For those who commerce for a dwelling, you realize this sensation, worth holds up, the internals begin to rot, and everybody retains searching for the second the chart lastly displays what the plumbing has been saying.
Hashrate is wobbling, miners are adapting, and that adaptation adjustments habits
One other piece of the setup is miner elasticity.
Hashrate remains to be enormous, nevertheless it has been swinging. On Jan. 29 the every day common is roughly 901 EH/s, down from earlier peaks this month.
That by itself doesn’t equal capitulation, and I’m not attempting to pressure a dramatic story onto routine variance. It does match the broader level, miners now have extra knobs to show.
A very powerful knob is the one no one talked about in prior cycles, AI and HPC internet hosting.
When a miner indicators long-duration compute offers, that enterprise begins to look much less like a pure BTC margin machine and extra like an influence, land, and infrastructure operator that occurs to mine Bitcoin.
TeraWulf put that shift in daring print when it introduced two 10-year HPC colocation agreements with Fluidstack for 200+ MW, with Google backstopping a big portion of obligations and receiving an fairness stake, per the corporate’s personal launch.
Riot has been exploring the identical course, together with a proper analysis to doubtlessly repurpose vital capability for AI and HPC, in accordance with DataCenterDynamics.
This issues for Bitcoin market construction as a result of it adjustments the incentives round hashrate on the lows.
A miner with a second income stream can behave in a different way beneath stress. They may curtail or redirect capability with out rapid existential strain, they could shield liquidity for buildouts, they could promote BTC extra mechanically to fund capex, they could merely cease caring about marginal hashprice in the way in which a pure miner as soon as did.
That’s the elasticity I used to be pointing at, and it’s beginning to present up within the knowledge’s tone even whereas worth sits excessive.
So what’s the “state of the thesis” proper now
Right here is the cleanest manner I can say it in a single breath.
The price flooring seems to be damaged, ETF flows have been risk-off for weeks, and the miner enterprise mannequin is evolving in a manner that may amplify reflexive habits throughout drawdowns.
These are the circumstances I wrote about.
The lacking ingredient is the half folks bear in mind, the chart dumping into the zone the place panic turns into stock switch.
Bitcoin at $82k doesn’t pressure anybody to make that call. A print within the $40ks would.
That’s the reason this replace is much less about worth targets and extra about stress. The system is constructing stress.
| Situation | Backside Worth (USD) | Timing Window | Path Form | Key Triggers Into Low (Jan 30, 2026 standing) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base | 49,000 | Q1–Q2 2026 | 2–3 sharp legs decrease, basing |  Hashprice spot sub-$40/PH/day Payment% of miner income < 10% (excessive, ~<1% on newest prints) 20D ETF flows unfavourable (web outflows during the last 20 buying and selling days) “Forwards sub-$40 for weeks” relies on whether or not you deal with spot because the proxy, forwards have a near-dated hump |
| Comfortable-landing | 56,000–60,000 | H2 2025 | Single flush, vary |  Payment% > 15% sustained (reverse, charges are very low) Steady hashrate (has proven significant variance this month) Combined to optimistic ETF flows on down days (late-Jan confirmed heavy outflows) |
| Deep minimize | 36,000–42,000 | Late 2026–Q1 2027 | Waterfall, quick | Macro risk-off (not a single on-chain metric, combined sign outdoors this desk) Payment drought (supported by charges and feerates) Miner misery (not “capitulation,” however stress seen by way of low hashprice) Persistent ETF outflows (current window unfavourable, “persistent” over longer horizon nonetheless TBD) |
The human-interest angle folks miss, miners are operating two firms without delay
Once you scale back this to “charges are down,” it seems like a chart word.
In actual life it seems to be like operators attempting to maintain the lights on, negotiating energy contracts, planning buildouts, courting AI clients, juggling shareholders, and nonetheless needing to compete in essentially the most brutal hash race on earth.
A low-fee setting doesn’t simply weaken the safety price range, it forces miners to get artistic, and creativity introduces new behaviors into the market.
The bottom-case bear I described in November was at all times about that habits exhibiting up similtaneously circulate strain, after which worth lastly doing the factor it does when leverage and narrative crack collectively.
Proper now, two of these levers are already pulled.
What would make me say the bear is resolving early
I’m protecting my flip-level framework, and I’m protecting it boring on objective.
- Charges must cease dwelling within the mud, the YCharts price line must rebuild an actual flooring relative to the YCharts income line.
- ETF circulate habits wants to alter, the Farside desk wants to indicate constant dip shopping for once more, not late-month air pockets.
- Mempool circumstances must really feel alive once more, price strain exhibiting up within the mempool medians in a manner that means actual settlement demand.
If these occur whereas worth stays elevated, the “shortest winter but” framing begins to win.
If these keep weak and worth ultimately breaks, the $49k model print stays in play as a liquidity magnet, as a result of that’s the place the client base tends to alter character.
The place I stand as we speak
I shouldn’t have the cathartic conclusion that each market story desires, as a result of the market has not given it but.
The infrastructure tells me winter circumstances are already right here.
The chart tells me the group has not felt them.
That hole is the factor to observe, as a result of gaps like this don’t normally persist eternally.
And once they shut, they shut quick.
The submit I predicted Bitcoin falling to $49k this yr and January delivered some very regarding crimson flags appeared first on CryptoSlate.