Groundhog Day for Bitcoin: six extra weeks of macro winter?
Bitcoin acquired its personal Groundhog Day second right now as Punxsutawney Phil “noticed his shadow” on the a hundred and fortieth Anniversary of the celebration and signaled six extra weeks of winter, simply after BTC slid to $74,000 in a pointy risk-off transfer.
The coincidence was becoming: a cocktail of compelled liquidations, ETF outflows, and rising actual yields prompt crypto could possibly be going through an prolonged stretch of macro chill and elevated volatility heading into the March FOMC.
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Bitcoin slides toward a 9 month low as massive ETF outflows and a hawkish Fed trap weekend dip buyers.
Feb 2, 2026 · Liam 'Akiba' Wright
As of press time, Bitcoin has rebounded barely to round $77,500 as a selloff in cross-asset danger met crypto’s 24/7 market construction.
Whole crypto liquidations broke above $2 billion over the weekend, with over $800 million within the final 24 hours alone.
The sturdy takeaway for the subsequent a number of weeks is that Bitcoin continues to behave like levered danger publicity when the {discount} price and the greenback reprice rapidly.
The episode is one other stress check for the “digital gold” narrative. That’s very true when gold holds up higher throughout risk-off stretches, and Bitcoin trades extra according to long-duration danger.
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Despite prominent sell-off, long-term projections hold firm with Bitcoin forecasted to reach $185,500 before the end of the quarter.
Jan 19, 2026 · Oluwapelumi Adejumo
ETF flows and liquidation dynamics
Flows have been the clear, each day read-through on marginal demand.
Farside Buyers’ ETF totals present repeated giant internet outflows into late January, together with a number of periods that eliminated a whole bunch of thousands and thousands of {dollars} of spot demand in a single day.
That issues as a result of when ETFs are redeeming, dips shouldn’t have the identical mechanical bid. Any liquidation cascade may journey additional in thinner order books.
| Date (2026) | US spot BTC ETF whole internet circulate (US$m) |
|---|---|
| Jan. 16 | -394.7 |
| Jan. 21 | -708.7 |
| Jan. 29 | -817.8 |
| Jan. 30 | -509.7 |
Macro anchors had been additionally transferring towards duration-sensitive belongings into that window.
Buying and selling Economics put the U.S. 10-year nominal yield round 4.24–4.26% on the Jan. 30 shut. StreetStats confirmed the 10-year TIPS actual yield round 1.93% on the similar reference level.
In follow, that real-yield stage tends to lift the hurdle price for belongings priced on future adoption or liquidity situations. It additionally tightens the vary for speculative leverage to persist with out periodic resets.
| Macro reference (Jan. 30 shut) | Stage |
|---|---|
| U.S. 10-year nominal yield | ~4.24–4.26% |
| U.S. 10-year actual yield (TIPS) | ~1.93% |
Coverage-regime uncertainty has been a part of the repricing narrative.
Headlines round Kevin Warsh and Federal Reserve management, feed into a better danger premium throughout markets tied to perceptions of Fed independence and the inflation path.
Crypto tends to specific that uncertainty with extra pressure as a result of leverage is less complicated to use. Liquidity additionally thins outdoors U.S. hours, and liquidations are automated as soon as collateral thresholds are hit.
That’s the reason liquidations must be handled because the transmission mechanism quite than the foundation trigger.
Macro repricing units the path. Worth then falls into thinner liquidity, liquidations add provide, and the transfer extends.
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Feb 1, 2026 · Liam 'Akiba' Wright
What to look at into the March FOMC
For the “six extra weeks” framing, probably the most actionable guidelines is whether or not the marginal bid returns earlier than the subsequent main coverage waypoint.
In a 2- to 6-week window:
- Sustained ETF inflows could be the clearest mechanical shift. Meaning not a single inexperienced day, however a run that offsets the late-January tempo of redemptions.
- Whether or not actual yields drift decrease from the ~2% space, which would scale back discount-rate stress on danger belongings.
- Whether or not implied volatility mean-reverts after the flush. Deribit’s DVOL index moved from roughly 37 to above 44 throughout the selloff week. A DVOL stage a bit above 44 maps to an approximate 30-day anticipated transfer close to ±13% utilizing a standard rule of thumb (annualized volatility divided by the sq. root of 12).
Bitcoin price today starts to rally after 11% weekend dump as global markets open with bullish intent
Bitcoin slides toward a 9 month low as massive ETF outflows and a hawkish Fed trap weekend dip buyers.
Feb 2, 2026 · Liam 'Akiba' Wright
That leaves room for a further two-way worth journey even when headlines cool. Two paths observe from the identical set of gauges.
- If ETF totals stay internet detrimental throughout a number of periods and actual yields keep close to latest ranges, Bitcoin can preserve buying and selling as levered danger beta into March. Rallies could possibly be capped by redemption-led provide and lingering hedging demand in choices.
- If ETF flows stabilize and macro stops tightening on the margin, the post-liquidation reset can scale back forced-selling danger. That might enable spot demand to set the tape once more quite than cascades setting the tempo.
The calendar offers a clear endpoint for the Groundhog Day metaphor. The following Federal Open Market Committee assembly is scheduled for March 17–18, 2026.
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