Earlier this 12 months, President Donald Trump promised a “Twenty first Century” funds improve with out requiring a central financial institution digital forex, placing the GENIUS Act on the heart of the plan.
The legislation is already on the books; the working rulebook isn’t but.
In July, Trump praised the crypto business, declaring:
“You have got actually as an business gone up greater than anyone. No one’s gained the respect in such a brief time period.”
He went on to make an unlimited promise to the business he now enormously admires,
“Many Individuals are unaware that behind the scenes, the technical spine of the monetary system is many years old-fashioned[…] however funds and cash transfers are pricey and take days and even weeks to clear.
Beneath this invoice, all the historical system shall be eligible for a Twenty first-century improve utilizing the state-of-the-art crypto expertise[…]
It will improve demand for US treasuries, decrease rates of interest and safe the greenback’s standing because the world’s reserve forex for generations to return.”
Trump additionally acknowledged that he believes stablecoins assist shield the greenback. He asserted that he’s “not going to let the greenback slide,” as a result of with a “good president, you’re by no means going to let the greenback slide.”
When he gave that speech, the greenback had fallen 12% since he took workplace in January. After, it elevated by 3% over the next months.
Notably, when the greenback slid, Bitcoin soared. Now the greenback is recovering, and Bitcoin is in decline.
Can Trump have his greenback cake with out consuming crypto, too?
The Treasury initiated GENIUS Act processes on September 18 with an advance discover of proposed rulemaking that seeks enter on find out how to license issuers, set up capital and liquidity necessities, and outline bank-permissible actions.
The session window is step one towards binding requirements that might enable banks and funds corporations to problem absolutely backed greenback stablecoins beneath federal oversight.
From banning CBDCs to rewiring the funds stack
The unique promise was framed as upgrading an “historical” stack with out constructing a CBDC.
In an govt motion signed Jan. 23, Trump created a CBDC ban, and payments to codify it have cleared the Home however will not be but legislation. The coverage path is about, whereas statutory endpoints and detailed implementation are pending.
Supervision has shifted in a means that issues for banks in search of to combine with crypto rails. This spring, the OCC, Federal Reserve, and FDIC withdrew earlier “ask permission first” guardrails and reopened custody, stablecoin, and cost DLT actions, which can cut back friction as soon as the Treasury finalizes the requirements.
The OCC additionally issued particular bulletins on financial institution actions associated to digital belongings, reestablishing permissible paths beneath evaluate for security and soundness. In accordance with the OCC, readability on permissible actions will sit alongside the GENIUS regime for issuers and cost stablecoin service intermediaries.
Throughput on public stablecoin rails is already substantial by on-chain measures, though a major share is intra-exchange and automatic, fairly than point-of-sale spending. Trade analysis from McKinsey frames the stablecoin thesis as tokenized money for settlement and treasury, not a client swipe substitute on day one.
In accordance with McKinsey, distribution and last-mile integration drive real-economy influence as soon as backing requirements converge beneath guidelines like GENIUS. After reserves are standardized, competitors shifts to who controls distribution between retailers, acquirers, and wallets.
Immediate rails catch as much as crypto velocity
Legacy immediate rails will not be standing nonetheless. In accordance with the Federal Reserve’s FedNow statistics, the community settled 2.5 million funds totaling $307 billion within the third quarter.
The personal Actual-Time Funds community processed $481 billion within the second quarter, with a single-day file of 1.81 million transactions and $5.2 billion on October 3. Swift states that 90% of cross-border funds now attain the vacation spot financial institution inside one hour on GPI, which narrows the velocity hole that when separated public chains from correspondent banking.
The aggressive wedge for crypto rails facilities on 24/7 uptime, weekend and cross-border settlement, programmability, and capital effectivity on the treasury layer, fairly than uncooked home velocity.
The pipes that join these benefits to on a regular basis commerce are turning on. Visa has expanded stablecoin settlement assist throughout extra currencies and chains, and is extending this functionality with further acquirers.
Mastercard unveiled end-to-end capabilities to energy stablecoin transactions from wallets to checkouts, and commenced regional settlement rollouts for USDC and EURC in corridors the place cross-border friction is highest.
In accordance with Visa Investor Relations and Mastercard, these integrations allow the motion of stablecoins into acquirer-ledgers and settlement recordsdata with out altering the patron checkout expertise.
Pilots with fintech infrastructure suppliers, together with these with Finastra and regional companions, reveal that working rails are dwell in restricted types. Acquirer and PSP adoption can scale with extra express guidelines on legal responsibility, capital, and reserve composition.
When the ‘substitute’ turns into measurable
Coverage timing units the boundary for when a “substitute” rail may be measured in manufacturing. Primarily based on the executive sequence, Treasury’s ANPRM in September is usually adopted by a discover of proposed rulemaking within the subsequent quarters, then a ultimate rule after a remark cycle.
In accordance with the Treasury docket, the ultimate GENIUS guidelines are scheduled for implementation in 2026, pending adherence to timelines. In parallel, banking businesses should set capital, liquidity, and supervision requirements for PPSIs and for banks that maintain reserves or intermediate stablecoin settlement.
Market-structure laws, together with the Digital Asset Market Readability Act that handed the Home in July, would make clear the therapy of exchanges and commodities versus securities, however has much less direct influence on funds on day one.
Ahead adoption will rely upon whether or not card networks and acquirers shift their settlement to stablecoins, which might cut back prices or shorten the time. The sensible near-term path is substitute in settlement, not on the level of sale.
PSPs and acquirers can web service provider receivables in USDC or EURC on weekends or throughout borders, then make the most of financial institution funds the place they’re cheaper or the place coverage requires it.
If that strategy scales, the entrance finish stays the identical for shoppers whereas the again finish routes throughout a number of rails. In accordance with Mastercard, multi-rail acceptance is already a program purpose.
For banks, the revived OCC steering implies that reserve custody, tokenized money actions, and funds DLT may be located beneath current danger frameworks as soon as ultimate guidelines outline eligibility and oversight.
Stablecoins, Treasuries, and the greenback technique behind GENIUS
The greenback technique embedded in GENIUS depends on absolutely backed reserves held in Treasury payments and money. If provide and distribution develop beneath federal licensing, the reserve base types a recurring bid for short-dated U.S. authorities debt.
A bigger stablecoin float channels demand into 1- to 3-month payments, thereby reinforcing greenback distribution overseas, offered that par convertibility and intraday liquidity are sturdy.
J.P. Morgan has printed a conservative forecast across the scale of the market, whereas McKinsey and Normal Chartered define bigger finish states. The vary issues lower than convertibility, audits, and narrow-banking-style safeguards that tackle financial institution supervisors’ issues concerning the singleness of cash, elasticity, and integrity.
There’s a competing path the place public stablecoins cap out and bank-led tokenized deposits take the lead. The Financial institution for Worldwide Settlements outlines a next-generation system constructed round tokenized deposits and unified ledgers anchored in central financial institution reserves.
Alongside this path, most real-economy flows make the most of FedNow, RTP, and SWIFT GPI each domestically and cross-border, with tokenization built-in inside financial institution steadiness sheets and wholesale platforms. Public stablecoins then stay a crypto-native rail with ring-fenced use.
The end result hinges on how U.S. guidelines resolve financial institution entry, capital, and liquidity, in addition to how card and acquirer networks value weekend and international trade corridors.
The early scorecard on Trump’s ‘substitute’ system
Close to-term scorecards level to movement, not completion. Guidelines are in session, OCC and the Fed have softened posture on financial institution participation, SEC management has turned over, and the cardboard networks are deploying.
Lacking items are the ultimate GENIUS laws, coordinated financial institution capital and liquidity therapies for PPSIs and financial institution intermediaries, and scaled acquirer adoption inside the most important service provider processors.
In the meantime, immediate rails are compounding. In accordance with FRB Providers, FedNow worth and quantity are increasing quarter over quarter. RTP’s throughput and transaction limits have risen, which reduces the home hole crypto as soon as exploited.
For readers monitoring whether or not the substitute is real, watch metrics that check the settlement thesis fairly than counting on consumer-facing anecdotes. The important thing dates to log are Treasury’s NPRM and ultimate rule milestones, OCC and Fed capital and liquidity specifics, and acquirer dashboards that show the share of service provider settlements routed to stablecoins by hall and day of the week.
Monitor the variety of banks that maintain stablecoin reserves and function on- and off-ramps beneath OCC steering. Examine stablecoin weekend and FX prices towards Swift GPI routes on the hall stage. Monitor mixture Treasury invoice holdings by licensed issuers towards public sale sizes. These are the gauges that convert political guarantees into measurable funds infrastructure.
| Rail | Current datapoint | Supply |
|---|---|---|
| FedNow | $307B settled in Q3 2025, 2.5M funds | FRB Providers |
| RTP | $481B in Q2 2025, Oct. 3 file 1.81M tx / $5.2B | PYMNTS |
| Swift GPI | 90% attain vacation spot financial institution inside one hour | Swift |
| Visa | Expanded stablecoin settlement assist, extra cash and chains | Visa IR |
| Mastercard | Finish-to-end stablecoin capabilities dwell in choose areas | Mastercard |
| GENIUS guidelines | ANPRM opened Sept. 18, 2025 | U.S. Treasury |
In brief, crypto is rising as a settlement layer inside multi-rail funds, whereas the patron expertise stays the identical.
The actual turning level happens as soon as GENIUS guidelines are finalized and acquirer adoption is mirrored in measurable settlement flows.
Is Trump on monitor to ship a real ‘substitute’?
To this point, Trump has set a path fairly than constructed a completed system. The CBDC ban, the GENIUS framework, and a friendlier stance from the OCC and Fed towards financial institution participation all transfer U.S. coverage towards crypto-based settlement rails.
Card networks and PSPs are wiring these rails into manufacturing, and banks are being advised what “permissible” appears like. That’s actual progress towards a crypto-native settlement layer.
However a full substitute of legacy rails is nowhere close to carried out. FedNow, RTP, and Swift GPI are scaling in parallel, not being switched off. GENIUS requirements are nonetheless beneath session, financial institution capital guidelines for PPSIs stay unresolved, and acquirer adoption is in early pilots fairly than being system-wide mandates.
Even on an aggressive timeline, many of the heavy lifting, together with ultimate guidelines, financial institution balance-sheet therapy, and cross-border hall build-out, will happen in 2026, and realization is prone to lengthen past his second time period.
Probably the most sensible consequence isn’t a clear swap of 1 system for one more, however a multi-rail stack the place stablecoins and tokenized deposits deal with settlement within the background whereas playing cards and immediate financial institution transfers stay the patron contact factors.
In that world, Trump can credibly argue that he pushed the system towards crypto rails and away from a CBDC, however the “substitute” he promised will look extra like a step by step rewired again finish than a flag day the place legacy rails disappear.
So is he on monitor?
At this stage, he’s on monitor to affect how the next-generation stack is wired, fairly than totally changing legacy rails in a single time period.
The scorecard at the moment reads: coverage momentum and dwell pilots, however no decisive break the place the majority of U.S. and international retail funds transfer onto crypto settlement.
Till financial institution capital and liquidity requirements are finalized, and acquirer dashboards present stablecoins carrying a significant share of settlement, Trump’s substitute stays a thesis in progress, not a totally developed system.
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