Bitcoin bounced again towards $69,000 on Feb. 25 after an intraday flush that printed lows within the low-$60,000s throughout a number of venues, liquidating almost $500 million in brief positions.
The transfer retains worth contained in the $60,000-$69,000 vary that has outlined February buying and selling, in line with Glassnode.
But, it doesn't resolve the structural weak point that has characterised the market since its 47% drawdown from all-time highs.
The bounce appears to be like much less like a macro breakout and extra like a risk-on rebound mixed with a movement and positioning reset after capitulation. Three mechanics clarify the transfer.
Three drivers behind the rally
Cross-market threat urge for food returned. World equities rallied on Feb. 25, led by expertise shares forward of Nvidia's earnings. Bitcoin traded consistent with different high-beta belongings as threat urge for food improved.
Spot BTC ETF flows flipped optimistic. US spot Bitcoin ETFs printed web inflows of $257.7 million on Feb. 24, in line with Farside Traders knowledge. This marked a reversal from the prior day's $203.8 million outflow.
Nonetheless, the motion doesn't erase the broader outflow pattern. Glassnode flags ETF flows as unfavorable year-to-date, nevertheless it additionally factors to a believable marginal purchaser able to powering a pointy bounce after a flush transfer.
Positioning and choices hedging are normalized. Glassnode flags that perpetual futures funding charges normalized towards impartial, indicating leverage has reset.
Choices markets spiked in short-dated volatility as Bitcoin approached $62,000, then compressed once more as worth reclaimed the mid-$60,000s.
This habits suggests panic hedging unwound, a mechanical rebound gasoline slightly than new bull market demand.
What structural weak point nonetheless appears to be like like
Glassnode's evaluation is direct: Bitcoin is “stabilizing, not but recovering.”
The market stays trapped between valuation anchors, with the primary demand zone round $60,000-$69,000. As we speak's bounce doesn't change that image.
The 47% drawdown from all-time highs is at traditionally mid-to-late bear-market depth. Roughly 9.2 million BTC held at a loss creates promoting stress on rallies as holders rotate out of underwater positions.
Glassnode's Accumulation Pattern Rating stays beneath 0.5, indicating restricted conviction from giant holders.
The 90-day Realized Revenue/Loss Ratio beneath 1.0 signifies a loss regime and impaired liquidity situations. Spot Cumulative Quantity Delta stays sharply unfavorable, displaying energetic distribution and sell-side movement dominance.
ETF flows stay in a broader outflow part regardless of Feb. 24's optimistic day.
The $60,000 flooring and the $70,000 ceiling
Clear ranges on either side outline Bitcoin's present vary. The $69,000 space sits on the high of Glassnode's $60,000-$69,000 principal demand zone.
Holding this degree on a every day and weekly foundation would assist body at the moment's transfer as “reclaiming vary highs” slightly than a failed bounce.
The $65,000 degree serves as a mid-range, and Glassnode notes the market snapped again as short-dated worry light. The $62,000-$62,500 vary is crucial. Glassnode explicitly flags roughly $62,000 as a degree that “may have opened a transfer towards the excessive 50s if damaged.”
The Feb. 25 intraday flush examined this space and held, explaining the mechanical aid rally that adopted.
The $60,000 degree marks the underside of the February vary. Breaking it could shift expectations towards deeper contraction. Beneath that, roughly $55,000 represents the Realized Worth, Glassnode's structural flooring anchor.
Glassnode states explicitly that failure to reclaim ranges above $70,000 retains draw back contraction threat elevated.
The $72,000 degree marks the highest finish of Glassnode's $60,000-$72,000 hall. Breaking by this vary ceiling can be the primary indication that the current weak point is resolving.
The roughly $79,200 degree represents the True Market Imply in Glassnode's valuation construction.
Reclaiming this may represent a real regime sign. Above that, heavy overhead provide clusters sit at $82,000-$97,000 and $100,000-$117,000, the place underwater holders can promote into aid rallies.
What would rely as a real regime shift
Three concrete tells would point out the market has moved from stabilization to restoration.
The primary is sustained ETF inflows. Not only a single $257.7 million day however consecutive intervals of web optimistic flows that reverse the year-to-date outflow pattern.
The second is spot markets flipping from sell-dominant to bid absorption, with Glassnode's spot Cumulative Quantity Delta stabilizing and trending optimistic.
The third is reclaiming greater valuation anchors, transferring above $70,000, then $72,000, then in the end the roughly $79,200 True Market Imply.
The underside line
Bitcoin's soar again towards $69,000 displays a risk-on rebound mixed with a movement and positioning reset after a capitulation flush.
World equities rallied, US spot Bitcoin ETFs printed a $257.7 million web influx on Feb. 24, and Glassnode's on-chain knowledge exhibits leverage has reset whereas choices panic hedging light.
Nonetheless, the structural image hasn't flipped. Glassnode nonetheless describes the market as stabilizing, not recovering.
Weak accumulation, unfavorable spot movement bias, and fragile ETF demand persist. Bulls want to carry $65,000-$69,000 and reclaim ranges above $70,000, then $72,000, earlier than calling the current weak point “fastened.”
The “don't lose it” flooring stays $62,000, with $60,000 and roughly $55,000 Realized Worth beneath that. As we speak's transfer is mechanical aid, not structural restoration.
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