Bitwise’s Chief Investment Officer, Matt Hougan, believes Bitcoin could still reach new all-time highs of $80,000 this year but only under specific conditions.
In an Oct. 9 note to investors, Hougan outlined the key factors that could influence Bitcoin’s upward trajectory, including the outcome of the US election, economic conditions, and the absence of major disruptions in the crypto space.
US elections
Hougan suggested that Bitcoin could climb to $80,000 if the upcoming US election results in anything other than a complete Democratic victory.
While many view the election as a straightforward choice between pro-crypto Donald Trump and ‘lukewarm’ Kamala Harris, Hougan explained the situation is more complex.
According to him, the Democratic party is populated by politicians with differing opinions about the emerging industry, ranging from Senator Elizabeth Warren’s anti-crypto stance to Representative Ritchie Torres’ strong support for the technology.
Hougan argued that the Warren wing’s control over policy and key appointments has created a challenging environment for the crypto sector over the past four years. So, if the Democratic party does not win both the White House and Congress, he expects them to take a more neutral stance toward the industry.
He stated:
“To thrive, bitcoin doesn’t need politicians. It just needs them to get out of the way. And barring a Democratic sweep of both houses of Congress and the White House, I suspect they will, with the Democrats taking a more neutral approach to the industry.”
Hougan shared data from the decentralized prediction platform Polymarket showing that the odds of a Democratic sweep are currently at 20%, while a Republican sweep sits at 33%. The platform also shows a 54% chance of Trump winning the presidency, a 73% likelihood of a Republican-controlled Senate, and a 62% probability of a Democratic House.
Economic conditions
Hougan identified further economic developments as crucial for Bitcoin’s potential rally. He expects two more rate cuts from the Federal Reserve by the end of the year, totaling 50 basis points, alongside additional fiscal stimulus from China.
Hougan pointed out that the market is eager for more cuts, and he expects the Federal Reserve to deliver the predicted rate cuts. He wrote:
“If it gets both, I suspect we will get our Q4 rally. If we don’t, I think the disappointment could weigh on the market.”
Stability in the crypto industry
The final factor that could drive Bitcoin past $80,000 this year is stability within the crypto industry.
Hougan emphasized the importance of avoiding major surprises, such as significant hacks, new lawsuits, or a flood of previously locked tokens entering the market. He added:
“If we can make it through the end of the year without similar shocks, I’d expect new all-time highs and beyond.”
‘Animal spirits’
While Bitcoin’s success doesn’t rely on other cryptocurrencies like Ethereum or Solana, Hougan noted that broader positive sentiment in the crypto market could boost Bitcoin’s short-term performance.
The Bitwise CIO mentioned the potential for Bitcoin to reach $100,000 in a matter of months, especially if “animal spirits”—a term he uses to describe pro-crypto sentiment—sweep through the market.
This year, those “animal spirits” have been relatively absent, except for Bitcoin. However, Hougan believes sustained growth in stablecoins and the rise of high-throughput blockchains like Sui, alongside innovative projects like Babylon, could further support Bitcoin’s upward momentum.
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