U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs gave again practically all of their 2025 positive factors after hitting a cycle excessive in early October, with whole web property sliding to $120.68 billion as of Dec. 4, down $48.86 billion from the Oct. 6 peak.
The drawdown leaves the class basically flat year-over-year, sitting simply $30 million beneath the $120.71 billion recorded on Dec. 16, 2024, emphasizing a “wipeout” yr through which huge price-driven swings did not translate into sustained web development for the ETF advanced.
The year-to-date circulation image diverged from the asset determine.
2025 web creations totaled $22.32 billion by means of Dec. 4, but the October-to-December worth drawdown in bitcoin minimize fund property again to the place they had been a yr in the past.
Since Oct. 6, cumulative web outflows totaled $2.49 billion, a small share of the $48.86 billion in AUM decline, with the residual transfer attributable to cost and unrealized revenue and loss.
That blend frames a yr through which issuance demand continued, whereas BTC’s late-year retracement erased the asset’s positive factors recorded into early October.
Second-quarter creations reached $12.80 billion, and third-quarter creations added $8.79 billion, whereas fourth-quarter creations turned marginally unfavourable by means of Dec. 4 at $0.20 billion in web redemptions.
The newest 30-day window confirmed $4.31 billion of web outflows, indicating that This fall cooled after a powerful center a part of the yr.
Even after the fourth-quarter slowdown, cumulative web inflows since launch stood at $57.56 billion, stressing that the structural base of issued shares stays above the extent implied by worth alone.
The hole between precise AUM and a flow-only counterfactual since Oct. 6 illustrates the dynamic. Ranging from the $169.54 billion peak and mechanically including solely each day creations and redemptions yields a path that may have saved property close to that place to begin, whereas the noticed line fell with BTC’s drawdown.
The distinction between these two paths, proven within the “AUM vs flow-only” evaluation, quantifies the value or PnL part that drove the decline.
By the identical logic, evaluating as we speak’s AUM to the Dec. 16, 2024 anchor with cumulative 2025 inflows isolates the previous yr’s attribution, the place constructive flows had been offset by unfavourable worth marks, leaving property close to flat.
Buyers centered on fund well being will parse the unfold between flows and efficiency to evaluate resilience, liquidity, and potential provide overhang within the main market.
The constructive 2025 flows imply approved contributors created shares web throughout the yr, so the product set didn’t endure broad redemption strain till late within the yr. Worth, not redemptions, explains many of the AUM reset from the October excessive.
That issues for secondary market circumstances as a result of persistent outflows would level to totally different seller stability sheet hundreds and secondary spreads than a price-led transfer with secure share counts.
The “nothingburger” year-over-year comparability is particular to the chosen dates, which middle on the newest legitimate row within the dataset and the prior mid-December reference.
As of Dec. 4, whole property got here in solely $30 million beneath the Dec. 16, 2024, studying, a rounding-level change for a product suite that scaled above $120 billion. The interpretation, for readers monitoring structural adoption by way of creations, is {that a} flat YoY AUM print doesn’t suggest negligible demand.
It displays that the fourth-quarter worth decline countered earlier inflows. The datasets and charts included, spanning whole AUM, each day flows, and cumulative inflows since launch, align with this decomposition.
The intra-quarter shift is seen within the each day sequence. By means of the spring and summer season, creations clustered on robust worth days, then waned into the autumn. After Oct. 6, redemptions elevated, and the 30-day web circulation turned unfavourable in early December.
The magnitude remained modest relative to the whole, at $2.49 billion in web outflows over the interval, reinforcing the mechanical level that the AUM slide for the reason that peak was primarily a operate of mark-to-market.
Under are the core figures referenced for readability.
| Metric | Worth | Date / Interval |
|---|---|---|
| Whole AUM | $120.68B | Dec. 4, 2025 |
| AUM peak | $169.54B | Oct. 6, 2025 |
| Change since peak | −$48.86B (−28.82%) | Oct. 6 to Dec. 4, 2025 |
| YoY AUM | $120.71B → $120.68B | Dec. 16, 2024 to Dec. 4, 2025 |
| 2025 YTD web flows | +$22.32B | By means of Dec. 4, 2025 |
| Flows since Oct. 6 | −$2.49B | Oct. 6 to Dec. 4, 2025 |
| Cumulative web inflows since launch | +$57.56B | By means of Dec. 4, 2025 |
| Newest 30-day web flows | −$4.31B | By means of Dec. 4, 2025 |
| Quarterly flows | Q1 +$0.93B, Q2 +$12.80B, Q3 +$8.79B, This fall thus far −$0.20B | 2025 |
For context and reproducibility, AUM corresponds to whole web property in USD, and flows correspond to the each day whole BTC influx.
The easy attribution of the AUM change from Oct. 6 to Dec. 4 equals web flows over the interval plus a worth or PnL time period. Utilizing that decomposition, the $48.86 billion decline approximates to $2.49 billion of web outflows and about $46.37 billion of worth or PnL.
The entire AUM chart reveals the October crest and the following fade into December, the each day flows chart reveals Q2 and Q3 power with This fall softness, and the cumulative web inflows chart confirms that creations stay constructive since launch.
As framed, the headline takeaway is that 2025 introduced constructive issuance, whereas the October retracement in BTC capped the yr with property close to final December’s degree and effectively beneath the early October peak.
The publish 2025 was formally a wipeout yr for US spot Bitcoin ETFs – now flat YoY and down $48B since October appeared first on CryptoSlate.