Polymarket Exhibits 75% Odds of Bitcoin Dropping Beneath $55K – What Merchants Have to Know

Merchants on prediction market Polymarket are pricing in a 75% probability that Bitcoin (BTC) will plunge under $55,000, signaling a pointy shift 18% in a single day rise in bearish sentiment because the asset struggles to carry the $65,000 help degree.

This quantified bearish information arrives as Bitcoin struggles to stay the 14th largest asset in world market cap rankings.

Why Are Prediction Markets Signaling Bearish Sentiment?

The pessimistic outlook follows a tough weekend the place Bitcoin’s market capitalization fell to $1.31 trillion, dropping briefly behind the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO).

Costs have retreated roughly 31% over the past yr from highs close to $100,000, pushed by fading post-halving momentum.

Current information reveals the whole crypto market cap has reached a forty five% drawdown. Since its October 5, 2025, excessive of $4.3 trillion, crypto has shed almost $2 trillion to command a mixed market cap of $2.35 trillion.

Institutional urge for food seems to be waning quickly, with spot Bitcoin ETFs logging a fifth straight week of outflows.

Whereas the asset holds above $66,000 for now, the current fall under $65K reignited fears that macro headwinds and geopolitical tensions are overpowering the normal inflation-hedge narrative.

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Breaking Down the Polymarket Information

The 72% chance determine derives from lively contracts on Polymarket, the place quantity on bearish strikes is surging.

Bets on BTC falling under $50,000 and $45,000 now maintain odds of 62% and 47% respectively, with mixed buying and selling volumes exceeding $1.5 million.

Heavy crypto wagering persists the world over, even because the Dutch regulator orders Polymarket to halt operations in particular jurisdictions and US state regulators crack down on prediction markets.

Technical indicators help this warning; evaluation from BeInCrypto highlights bearish RSI divergence on weekly charts, usually a precursor to deeper corrections.

Whereas prediction markets can overshoot, the excessive confidence in sub-$55K costs aligns with Normal Chartered’s projection of a dip to $50,000 earlier than any structural restoration to $100,000, in line with information extensively circulated from a current be aware to traders.

CryptoQuant CEO Ki Younger Ju equally famous in a current interview that $55,000 could characterize the final word market backside for this cycle.

What Does This Imply for BTC Value?

For merchants, the $55,000 degree is the vital line within the sand. If the present $63,300 help cluster fails, liquidation cascades might quickly validate the prediction market’s bearish thesis.

Nevertheless, on-chain information reveals resilience: long-term holder promoting dropped 67% in February, from 244,919 BTC to only 81,019 BTC, suggesting the “sensible cash” is completed promoting.

As merchants purchase crash safety by way of places, a reclaim of $72,200 stays essential to invalidate the bearish construction.

Regardless of short-term worry, Polymarket prediction markets nonetheless assign a 78% chance of BTC hitting $75,000 earlier than 2027, indicating that the majority market contributors view this potential drop as a extreme however only a momentary correction.

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The publish Polymarket Exhibits 75% Odds of Bitcoin Dropping Beneath $55K – What Merchants Have to Know appeared first on Cryptonews.