Harvard economist Kenneth Rogoff publicly admitted his decade-old prediction that Bitcoin would crash to $100 was essentially flawed, acknowledging three important miscalculations in his evaluation.
The previous Worldwide Financial Fund chief economist posted on X that he underestimated Bitcoin’s position within the $20 trillion world underground financial system, didn’t anticipate pro-crypto U.S. regulatory developments, and by no means anticipated authorities officers to build up large crypto holdings whereas setting coverage.
Rogoff’s 2018 CNBC prediction that Bitcoin was “extra prone to be price $100 than $100,000 ten years from now” has confirmed spectacularly fallacious as Bitcoin at present trades above $115,000.
His unique thesis centered on the idea that authorities regulation would remove Bitcoin’s main use instances of cash laundering and tax evasion, inflicting costs to break down.
Virtually a decade in the past I used to be the Harvard economist that stated that bitcoin was extra prone to be price $100 than 100k. What did I miss? I used to be far too optimistic concerning the US coming to its senses about wise cryptocurrency regulation; why would policymakers wish to facilitate tax…
— Kenneth S Rogoff (@krogoff) August 19, 2025
Three Miscalculations That Doomed the $100 Prediction
Writing in his new e-book “Our Greenback, Your Downside,” Rogoff recognized his first main error as being “far too optimistic concerning the U.S. coming to its senses about wise cryptocurrency regulation.“
As an alternative of the anticipated crackdown, the Trump administration enacted landmark pro-crypto laws, together with the GENIUS Act, CLARITY Act, and CBDC Anti-Surveillance State Act.
The GENIUS Act established the primary federal regulatory framework for stablecoins, mandating full backing with U.S. {dollars} whereas creating formal shopper protections.
US Treasury seeks public enter on AI instruments to detect crypto cash laundering as criminals stole $3B in 2025 with 4-second assault speeds.#Crypto #Securityhttps://t.co/wHuMM4vb5k
— Cryptonews.com (@cryptonews) August 19, 2025
In the meantime, the CLARITY Act transferred digital asset jurisdiction from the SEC to the Commodity Futures Buying and selling Fee, offering clearer oversight roles for crypto exchanges and sellers.
Rogoff’s second miscalculation concerned Bitcoin’s surprising dominance within the world underground financial system.
He acknowledged not appreciating “how Bitcoin would compete with fiat currencies to function the transactions medium of selection within the twenty-trillion greenback world underground financial system.“
This demand creates a value flooring for Bitcoin because it captures market share from conventional cash-based illicit transactions.
The underground financial system has traditionally relied on U.S. greenback money, however Bitcoin more and more serves these unregulated markets regardless of ongoing regulatory strain.
This transactional utility gives real-world worth past hypothesis, undermining Rogoff’s unique assumption that eradicating unlawful use instances would devastate Bitcoin costs.
His third error concerned underestimating political conflicts of curiosity.
Rogoff expressed shock at “a scenario the place regulators, and particularly the regulator in chief, would be capable of overtly maintain tons of of hundreds of thousands (if not billions) of {dollars} in cryptocurrencies seemingly with out consequence given the blatant battle of curiosity.“
Trump’s Crypto Empire Validates Economist’s Battle Issues
President Trump’s in depth crypto holdings have validated Rogoff’s issues about regulatory conflicts of curiosity.
Trump maintains $1.2 billion in crypto wealth throughout a number of ventures, together with $430 million in numerous wallets, $390 million from World Liberty Monetary, and $315 million from his $TRUMP meme coin.
Trump Media & Know-how Group holds roughly 18,430 Bitcoin price $2.1 billion, representing 40% of the corporate’s market capitalization and making it the sixth-largest company Bitcoin holder globally.
The timing of Trump’s crypto accumulation aligns together with his administration’s regulatory reforms, together with appointing pro-crypto SEC officers and establishing strategic Bitcoin reserve plans.
Roughly 20% of present Trump advisors actively maintain cryptocurrencies, together with Vice President JD Vance and 7 Cupboard members with collective holdings exceeding $2 million.
Democrats on the Home Monetary Companies Committee have criticized Trump for rewriting “the principles, then cashed in on the chaos he helped create.”
The crypto trade contributed over $26 million to Trump’s political motion committee, with main donors together with Blockchain.com ($5 million), Marc Andreessen and Ben Horowitz ($3 million every), and Gemini Belief ($3 million).
These monetary relationships elevate questions on coverage independence, particularly as the federal government considers Bitcoin reserve initiatives.
Rogoff, who has modified his stance, contrasts with different outstanding Bitcoin skeptics who’ve maintained their positions regardless of the crypto’s development.
Again then, Warren Buffett continued calling Bitcoin “rat poison squared,” whereas Jamie Dimon maintained his “fraud” evaluation regardless of just lately softening towards blockchain know-how.
Equally, Paul Krugman and Charlie Munger had been constant critics, dismissing Bitcoin as missing intrinsic worth.
Nonetheless, regarding authorities involvement, trade critics like ZachXBT just lately argue that authorities dependence contradicts cryptocurrency’s founding ideas of independence.
The blockchain investigator criticized how the trade has “normalized thefts” whereas counting on often-incompetent regulation enforcement to recuperate stolen funds.
He highlighted the continuing structural issues that authorities involvement can not remedy, and even make worse.
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