Bitcoin has mirrored a well-recognized bullish setup, finishing its weekly CME hole fill between $109,680 and $111,310, a technical milestone that final preceded a serious rally in late 2024.
The main cryptocurrency is holding the identical increased low construction from which the October 2024 reversal emerged, sparking renewed optimism amongst merchants.
Again then, Bitcoin stuffed its CME hole at $68,785 earlier than launching a two-month run to $108,000.
Now, analysts at RektCapital be aware {that a} bullish divergence is forming on the every day timeframe, hinting {that a} comparable breakout might propel Bitcoin towards $130,000 earlier than This fall ends.
#BTC
Bitcoin continues to carry the exact same Increased Low (purple) from which the earlier reversal originated from$BTC #Crypto #Bitcoin pic.twitter.com/7Tu6UMbDIV— Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) October 16, 2025
Bitcoin Market Sentiment Hits 2017 Lows
Crypto merchants who’ve been round since late 2017 say morale is at certainly one of its lowest factors in years.
Sentiment in main chat rooms is displaying exhaustion and doubt, with many satisfied the cycle has ended. Even seasoned merchants admit to underperforming this yr in comparison with 2020–2021. Coupled with final Friday’s brutal wipeout, the market seems like a ghost city.
These elements have fueled hypothesis that Bitcoin topped out after hitting $126,000 ten days in the past.
Nevertheless, each technical patterns and macroeconomic indicators counsel in any other case.
Bitcoin’s funding fee on Binance flipped adverse this week, a uncommon prevalence that has traditionally marked native bottoms and preceded main rallies.
On-chain knowledge additionally exhibits giant spot change outflows, indicating quiet accumulation amid widespread concern.
Gold Indicator Reveals Bitcoin Is About to Steal the Highlight
In the meantime, gold has outperformed Bitcoin since March, rising 28.12% in comparison with Bitcoin’s 4.42% decline.
Traditionally, Bitcoin tends to take the baton from gold as soon as the metallic’s rally turns into overextended.
With gold’s RSI hitting an unprecedented 92 and retail traders queuing for bodily purchases, the yellow metallic could also be approaching exhaustion.
The final three situations when gold led, August 2020, September 2024, and early April 2025, have been adopted by large Bitcoin rallies.
In 2020, Bitcoin surged from $9,500 to over $45,000 inside two months after gold peaked.
If this sample holds, the present setting might be organising for one more post-gold rotation, probably propelling Bitcoin towards the $130,000 zone by year-end.
Bitcoin’s month-to-month Bollinger Bands proceed to increase to essentially the most excessive ranges ever recorded.
Each historic enlargement of this magnitude has led to increased costs, pointing extra to a rising volatility that usually precedes upside strikes.
Moreover, this marks solely the third time in six years that Bitcoin has traded negatively midway by October. On all six earlier events, BTC closed the month inexperienced by October 31.
On the Macro entrance, CME knowledge signifies a 96.7% chance of a Federal Reserve fee reduce later this month, marking the Fed’s first easing transfer in over a yr.
Decrease borrowing prices usually result in higher liquidity and stronger risk-on urge for food, a state of affairs that traditionally advantages Bitcoin.
$132K or Sub-$110K? Professional Maps Bitcoin’s Two Doable Paths
Farzam Ehsani, co-founder and CEO of VALR, advised Cryptonews that whereas the Fed’s dovish stance and rising liquidity are constructive for digital belongings, renewed U.S.–China commerce frictions and extended U.S. authorities shutdown dangers might complicate near-term sentiment.
JUST IN:
China says it plans to work with the US to discover a resolution on commerce. pic.twitter.com/0sWWayQCO5
— Watcher.Guru (@WatcherGuru) October 16, 2025
He pointed to the rising alignment between gold and Bitcoin, noting that “traders more and more view each Bitcoin and Gold as onerous belongings hedging towards fiscal dangers, sovereign debt considerations, and coverage uncertainty.”
Ehsani concludes that Bitcoin stands at a key crossroads.“If liquidity tailwinds materialize and institutional accumulation continues, BTC might strengthen towards $132,000 by year-end.”
Nevertheless, ought to macro dangers resurface or commerce tensions escalate, a transfer under $110,000 stays doable as markets recalibrate.
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