Forward of Monad Crypto Launch, Knowledgeable Warns of Worst-Case Situation

Monad is a type of crypto tasks everybody has heard about by now. It’s a Layer 2 (L2), an Ethereum Digital Machine (EVM) chain and one other so-called Ethereum (ETH) killer. The venture expanded rapidly all through 2025, and a few consider Monad has actual potential, whereas others anticipate it to observe the same old L2 sample of early hype, speedy progress, and a sluggish decline.

Matas Čepulis, Founder and CEO of LuvKaizen, instructed Cryptonews that Monad reminds him of tasks like Sei (SEI), Sui (SUI), and Avalanche (AVAX). Every of them raised critical cash at launch, however the outcomes weren’t spectacular in the long run:

$250 million raised or one thing, but it surely all ends in some unspecified time in the future with minimal TVL and no income. This occurred equally already to SEI, SUI, AVAX, all of them raised $100 million to $300 million, ended with F1 sponsorship and useless traction.

‘Why Would I Want One other Layer 2?’

Token efficiency doesn’t work of their favour both. In keeping with CoinPaprika, most L2 tokens are down round 90% from their all-time highs (ATH) and even decrease. Within the crypto neighborhood, this drop is normally known as demise. Just a few tasks stand out, corresponding to Mantle (MNT) and Zora (ZORA).

In comparison with others, they’re down 67% and 64% from ATH. It’s value noting that each are pretty new. Mantle is supported by Bybit, which retains including numerous passive-income choices. Zora is extra speculative, however the venture created quite a lot of hype at launch and nonetheless attracts consideration once in a while.

The larger downside is easy: there are too many L2s. When Ethereum and its ecosystem had been growing, L2s had been genuinely wanted. However the growth in DeFi and Web3 created an surroundings the place chains appeared sooner than anybody may observe, and most of them weren’t providing something new. It’s related to what’s taking place with AI proper now.

Monad could run into the identical wall. Čepulis provides:

I don’t see a lot innovation there and every thing they are saying they’ve. Ethereum or Solana have already been solved. Why would I would like one other Layer 2?

Will the Monad Launch Change Something?

Monad ended up in an uncommon place. The venture grew to become extraordinarily in style and broadly mentioned. Some customers see an enormous future for it, particularly round its NFTs and buying and selling playing cards, which generated loads of consideration regardless that the NFT sector has struggled for years.

Monad additionally has backing from main gamers. Coinbase grew to become the unique platform for the Monad ICO, and U.S. customers are allowed to take part, which is uncommon due to regulatory limitations. This alone offers the venture extra liquidity and visibility than most new chains obtain at launch.

Proper now, the neighborhood appears extra within the Monad token than within the expertise behind it. This isn’t stunning. Throughout market corrections merchants search for new alternatives, and with Monad gaining consideration, it naturally suits sure speculative methods.

One real looking state of affairs is a fast sell-off shortly after the Monad crypto launch. There could possibly be a short spike adopted by early traders securing income. This behaviour has been widespread in 2025. The basic maintain technique stopped working in lots of instances, and merchants entered aggressively and exited rapidly, like what occurred with the latest Uniswap (UNI) rally.

The problem is that retail merchants don’t see what occurs behind the scenes. They normally discover progress after it has already taken place.

The Huge Nuance

Regardless of the profitable Monad ICO, there are considerations across the MON token. One among them is that a big portion of the provision goes to the workforce and traders. Čepulis feedback:

I see some flaws and ache factors within the tokenomics the place it’s allotted greater than 50% of the provision for the workforce, insiders, and so on.

This allocation may additionally imply that traders, particularly these within the insider class, seize a lot of the upside. Čepulis additionally famous that many individuals who had been farming Monad for months could find yourself receiving little or no:

Yappers and KOLs perhaps acquired their half, however I really feel actually sorry for small accounts who had been pushing day by day and acquired actually nothing out of it.

On X, there are many accounts actively selling Monad, which raises questions on how the provision will flow into as soon as buying and selling begins. It’s nonetheless unclear what’s going to occur to customers who obtain tokens by the ICO somewhat than farming.

Monad enters the market with sturdy visibility, Coinbase backing, and a neighborhood that’s at the moment extra centered on the MON token than on the underlying expertise. However with greater than half of the provision allotted to the workforce and traders, the token could face heavy promoting shortly after the Monad crypto launch. Merchants within the present market typically prioritise fast profit-taking over long-term utility, which will increase this danger.

The result could resemble the Pump.Enjoyable sample, with an preliminary drop adopted by restoration if the venture continues to construct, or the extra typical L2 path of early hype and gradual cooldown if Monad doesn’t supply significant innovation past Ethereum or Solana.

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