Bitcoin has rebounded from an early-February slide that briefly pushed it to $60,000 and produced its most oversold sign on file, easing a number of the stress that has weighed on crypto markets.
In line with CryptoSlate's information, the flagship digital asset has steadied in latest days and briefly approached the $70,000 mark earlier than settling round $67,300 as of press time
This value motion helped enhance the broader market sentiment as a result of it coincided with a three-day stretch of internet inflows into US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), their strongest run this month.
On the similar time, the market is exhibiting indicators of improved spot demand for the primary time since late November.
Consequently, there was renewed market hypothesis that BTC may recuperate to $90,000 in March, although derivatives positioning suggests merchants nonetheless see that consequence as an extended shot.
Related Reading Notice Bitcoin selling off at market open? Jane Street is taking the blame, but the data points elsewhere
Outflows, thin liquidity, and unstable options positioning can mimic “coordination” even when it’s just market plumbing at work.
Feb 26, 2026 · Oluwapelumi Adejumo
Choices are pricing restoration, however not conviction
Bitcoin’s choices market suggests merchants are nonetheless paying up for defense, at the same time as chatter builds round a fast rebound.
On Deribit, the March 27 $90,000 name not too long ago traded round $522, which interprets to lower than a 6% implied likelihood of Bitcoin reaching that stage by late March underneath commonplace Black-Scholes modeling.
In the meantime, the March 27 $50,000 put was close to $1,380, implying roughly a 20% probability of a deeper drop.
CME Group information factors to the identical warning. On Feb. 5, 25-delta implied volatility rose to 75% for calls and 95% for places, each the best since 2022, whereas the 25-delta threat reversal slid to minus 19.34, its lowest stage since 2022.
That blend is typical of a market nonetheless shopping for draw back insurance coverage and never one satisfied the selloff is over.
On the similar time, derivatives positioning reveals why the restoration narrative has not vanished.
CME mentioned open curiosity tied to March expirations skewed bullish, with about $660 million in name open curiosity versus $240 million in put open curiosity, a 3-to-1 ratio.
Derive, a crypto choices platform, echoed that learn in a Feb. 27 electronic mail assertion to CryptoSlate.
The agency mentioned Bitcoin volatility has eased again into the 50% vary, a stage extra in keeping with consolidation than panic, whereas 25-delta skew improved from about minus 15% to round minus 7%, suggesting merchants have develop into much less defensive.
Throughout the March 27 expiry, the market reveals name accumulation at $80,000 and $90,000 alongside significant put curiosity at $60,000 and $55,000, signaling traders need upside publicity with out dropping hedges.
In conclusion, the agency said:
“The information factors towards a market trying to type a base. Volatility compression, enhancing sentiment metrics and more and more structured positioning counsel merchants are transitioning away from defensive panic towards conditional optimism, getting ready for upside participation whereas remaining protected in opposition to one other leg decrease.”
Related Reading Bitcoin was oversold more than ever before it jumped – could bears soon get wrecked through liquidations?
Bitcoin encounters historic oversold conditions amid ETF outflows and dwindling market liquidity.
Feb 25, 2026 · Oluwapelumi Adejumo
ETF flows nonetheless maintain the important thing to any quick transfer
If Bitcoin is to maneuver past a gradual restoration, the exchange-traded fund market stays the clearest supply of further demand. That can be the place the rebound case faces its greatest check.
Information from SoSoValue present US spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded $2.6 billion in internet outflows because the begin of 2026.
That marks a pointy shift from the identical interval a yr earlier and suggests one in every of Bitcoin’s most seen institutional demand channels has been subtracting from momentum quite than including to it.
The problem for bullish traders shouldn’t be a single weak week. It’s the threat {that a} sustained stretch of damaging flows can restrict rallies, weaken momentum, and depart spot patrons to soak up promoting stress with out assist from one of many market’s largest sources of demand.
Nonetheless, there are early indicators that demand could also be returning.
SoSoValue information present that spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted greater than $1 billion in internet inflows over the past three buying and selling classes this week, at the same time as BTC continues to commerce in a good vary.
That represents a notable enchancment after a protracted interval of outflows.
Nonetheless, three days of inflows don’t set up a sturdy development, particularly if Bitcoin is to make a reputable push towards $90,000 in March.
For that to occur, the ETF market would doubtless want a number of extra robust classes in shut succession, sufficient to soak up overhead provide and assist create the sort of suggestions loop that pulls in further spot demand.
Related Reading 
Bitcoin ETFs go to zero sooner than you'd think if outflows don't slow down as $8.5B leaves since October
While Bitcoin ETFs have seen $53 billion in cumulative inflows since launch, the current rate of outflows is mildly alarming. So let's look at how bad it really is.
Feb 19, 2026 · Liam 'Akiba' Wright
Even when flows enhance, $90,000 shouldn’t be a clean-air goal.
Glassnode beforehand famous that Bitcoin stays in what it referred to as a defensive section, with promoting stress nonetheless being absorbed in a $60,000 to $72,000 demand hall.
The agency additionally pointed to massive provide clusters overhead, at $82,000 to $97,000 and once more at $100,000 to $117,000. These ranges replicate the place many holders are sitting on unrealized losses and could also be extra prepared to promote into reduction rallies.
In that context, $90,000 is not only a psychological marker. It sits inside a heavier provide band that the market would wish to work by way of.
Furthermore, Glassnode’s realized value, a extensively watched proxy for the market’s mixture price foundation, was $54,614.94 as of Feb. 26.
That doesn’t indicate Bitcoin should return to that stage. Nonetheless, it reveals the gap between present costs and a deeper valuation reference, which tends to attract consideration in periods of stress.
Within the close to time period, latest efforts to retake $70,000 have met seen profit-taking.
Glassnode mentioned smoothed internet realized revenue and loss rose above $5 million an hour on Feb. 25 as Bitcoin climbed to a peak close to $69,400 earlier than stalling.
The agency mentioned profit-taking continued to soak up momentum across the $70,000 stage, reinforcing the image of a market recovering in a thin-liquidity surroundings the place even modest bursts of promoting can interrupt advances.
March is full of catalysts, not certainty
The March calendar additionally argues in opposition to treating $90,000 as a simple name.
It is because Bitcoin will face a sequence of macroeconomic checks that might form demand for threat belongings.
For context, the US jobs report for February is due March 6. The February client value index information is scheduled for launch on March 11. The Federal Reserve meets March 17-18. The January Private Revenue and Outlays report, which incorporates the PCE inflation gauge, is due March 25.
These occasions matter as a result of Bitcoin stays delicate to interest-rate expectations, inflation information, and broader liquidity situations.
Reuters reported this week that the Fed is predicted to maintain its benchmark price in a 3.50% to three.75% vary at its March assembly, as latest shifts in market expectations diminished confidence in early price cuts.
That backdrop shouldn’t be essentially damaging for Bitcoin. Nevertheless it additionally doesn’t present the sort of clear easing sign that may make a speedy climb to $90,000 look doubtless.
Taken collectively, these situations assist clarify the market’s cautious optimism.
Nonetheless, there’s a credible path to greater costs in March. Softer inflation information, a much less restrictive tone from the Fed, a number of classes of robust ETF inflows, and additional brief masking in derivatives may push Bitcoin sharply greater.
The March choices positioning reveals merchants see that state of affairs. Nonetheless, the continued demand for draw back safety reveals they don’t seem to be absolutely satisfied.
The submit Bitcoin sees $1B ETF inflows after brutal outflow streak, establishing the clearest path to $90,000 appeared first on CryptoSlate.