On Feb. 20, Brazil's international commerce council revealed a technical decision decreasing import duties to zero for a slim class of {hardware}: SHA256 Bitcoin miners exceeding 200 terahashes per second with vitality effectivity under 20 joules per terahash.
Three days later, French state-owned vitality large Engie instructed Reuters it was contemplating putting in Bitcoin miners at its 895-megawatt Assu Sol plant in northeast Brazil, the corporate's largest photo voltaic facility globally, to monetize curtailed electrical energy and enhance profitability.
The 2 developments landed inside 72 hours of one another, and collectively they sketch a thesis most observers missed: Brazil is constructing a stress valve for stranded renewable vitality, and Bitcoin mining is the discharge mechanism.
This isn't a narrative about Brazil “legalizing” mining or launching a nationwide technique. It's concerning the quiet convergence of three forces: continual curtailment, falling {hardware} price boundaries, and generator economics breaking.
Collectively, they create the situations for incremental hashrate to circulation towards a market no person was watching.
The curtailment drawback that Bitcoin miners can remedy
Brazil's wind trade curtailed roughly 32 terawatt-hours between October 2021 and September 2025, amounting to about 6 billion reais (roughly $1.2 billion) in misplaced income for wind farms.
Curtailment happens when the grid can't take up the electrical energy being produced as a result of fallacious place, the fallacious time, or inadequate transmission capability. For renewable turbines, curtailed megawatt-hours are destroyed worth.
Wind and photo voltaic generated 24% of Brazil's electrical energy in 2024, and in August 2025, that share hit 34% for the primary time.
Grid operator ONS describes curtailment as a structural function of methods with excessive shares of variable renewables, not a brief friction.
Because the renewables combine rises and transmission buildout lags, the mismatch grows. Turbines want native, dispatchable demand that may take up otherwise-wasted electrons and activate or off shortly. Bitcoin mining matches that profile exactly.
Engie's Assu Sol plant is situated in Brazil's northeast, a area with sturdy photo voltaic irradiance however transmission constraints.
The corporate instructed Reuters that mining or storage may make the power extra worthwhile by monetizing vitality that will in any other case be curtailed, however emphasised this may take years to implement.
The sign issues as a result of it's coming from a state-owned European utility with no prior crypto publicity, framing mining purely as an industrial demand response software.
What the tax change really does to Bitcoin miners
Resolução GECEX 861, revealed Feb. 20, amends Brazil's consolidated ex-tariff listing to cut back import obligation to zero for particular info know-how items.
Annex I provides a brand new line overlaying servers devoted to cryptocurrency mining utilizing the SHA256 algorithm with vitality effectivity measured at 35 levels Celsius, under 20 joules per terahash, and processing capability above 200 terahashes per second.
The zero-percent obligation stays in impact by means of Jan. 31, 2028.
This isn’t a blanket exemption for all mining {hardware}. The thresholds filter for top-tier ASICs. Older or much less environment friendly fashions don't qualify. The coverage targets the {hardware} class that may really compete at scale in knowledgeable mining setting.
Brazil's import tax construction is notoriously layered. Import obligation is one element of the full landed price, together with IPI, PIS/COFINS-Import, ICMS, and varied charges. Commerce logistics guides generally cite complete import burdens within the 40%-100% vary.
Chopping import obligation to zero removes one federal lever however doesn't eradicate the total stack.
However, Brazil lowered a key price barrier for high-efficiency mining {hardware}, decreasing payback intervals, regardless that different taxes stay.
The break-even energy value that makes this work
Mining profitability is determined by three variables: hash value (income per terahash per second per day), {hardware} effectivity, and electrical energy price.
As of Feb. 16, Hashrate Index reported a hash value of round $34.05 per petahash per second per day. Bitcoin traded close to $64,000 on Feb. 23.
For a minimum-qualifying rig below Ex 040, with 200 terahashes per second at 20 joules per terahash, each day income equals roughly $6.81. Energy consumption is 4.0 kilowatts. Day by day vitality use is 96 kilowatt-hours.
The break-even electrical energy value, ignoring capital expenditure and working overhead, is about $0.071 per kilowatt-hour.
Changing to reais utilizing the Feb. 23 trade price of roughly 5.17 reais per greenback, break-even sits round 370 reais per megawatt-hour. Retail enterprise electrical energy costs in Brazil averaged 0.657 reais per kilowatt-hour in June 2025, which is much too excessive for mining.
Nonetheless, wholesale spot costs usually commerce within the 250-450 reais per megawatt-hour vary, and curtailed vitality, by definition, has no higher purchaser.
If a generator can promote otherwise-lost megawatt-hours to a miner at or under its break-even price, the generator recovers income that will in any other case be zero.
That is the mechanism: curtailment creates stranded worth, mining converts stranded worth into computation, and the ex-tariff drops {hardware} price sufficient to tighten the arbitrage window.
What occurs if the thesis performs out
If Brazil's curtailment persists or grows, pushed by continued renewables buildout outpacing transmission capability, turbines will face mounting income stress.
Mining provides a bilateral PPA construction that requires no new transmission and may ramp inside days of {hardware} supply. The ex-tariff stays in impact by means of January 2028, making a 24-month window for miners to lock in {hardware} price certainty whereas testing curtailment economics.
Engie's pilot framing suggests different utilities and impartial energy producers will consider related choices. If a number of giant renewable tasks announce colocation offers over the following 12 months, Brazil turns into a significant incremental hashrate vacation spot.
This occurs not due to nationwide technique, however as a result of project-level economics align.
The nation already has regulatory readability round Bitcoin, established banking infrastructure for crypto companies, and no capital controls that will entice mining income onshore.
But, the thesis may also fail. If transmission upgrades speed up and scale back curtailment, the stranded vitality pool shrinks, and energy costs rise.
If Bitcoin's issue spikes, compressing the hash price under the $30-per-petahash vary, break-even energy prices drop under what most curtailment contracts can ship.
If native allowing or grid interconnection processes create friction for knowledge middle builds, the {hardware} price benefit turns into irrelevant.
And if the ex-tariff expires in January 2028 with out renewal, the import price barrier returns.
| Bucket | Metric | Worth | Why it issues |
|---|---|---|---|
| Curtailment scale | Wind curtailment (Oct 2021–Sep 2025) | 32 TWh | Defines the “stranded worth” pool mining targets |
| Curtailment influence | Wind income misplaced (identical interval) | R$6B (~$1.2B) | Reveals curtailment is an economics drawback, not a rounding error |
| Renewables penetration | Wind+photo voltaic share of technology (2024) | 24% | Larger VRE share tends to lift congestion/curtailment stress |
| Renewables penetration | Wind+photo voltaic share (Aug 2025) | 34% | “First time” milestone that indicators structural shift |
| Coverage filter | Eligible {hardware} | SHA256, >200 TH/s, <20 J/TH @35°C | Targets top-tier ASIC class; excludes older rigs |
| Coverage window | 0% import obligation legitimate by means of | Jan 31, 2028 | Time-bounded “choice window” for miners to maneuver |
| Utility sign | Engie Assu Sol plant measurement | 895 MWp | Sufficiently big to matter; exhibits critical generator curiosity |
| Mining income | Hashprice (Feb 16) | $34.05 / PH/s/day | Anchors profitability math |
| Rig economics | Min qualifying rig each day income | ~$6.81/day | Ties income to a particular machine class |
| Rig economics | Energy draw | 4.0 kW | Converts effectivity → electrical energy price sensitivity |
| Rig economics | Day by day vitality | 96 kWh/day | Makes break-even intuitive |
| Break-even energy | Electrical energy break-even | $0.071/kWh (~R$370/MWh) | The quantity that decides “hub or not” |
| Value actuality verify | Retail enterprise electrical energy (June 2025) | R$0.657/kWh (R$657/MWh) | Reveals why miners want wholesale/curtailment pricing |
| Value actuality verify | Wholesale spot band (usually) | R$250–450/MWh | Reveals feasibility zone exists typically |
The Bitcoin miner constraint nobody talks about
Zero-percent import obligation issues, however it doesn't repair the financing hole.
Mining {hardware} has a helpful life measured in issue epochs, not a long time. Brazil's price of capital is larger than within the US or Europe, and native banks have restricted urge for food for crypto-native credit score.
Miners scaling in Brazil will want both offshore financing denominated in {dollars} or fairness constructions that may take up illiquidity.
The opposite constraint is operational. Mining at renewable crops works when curtailment is predictable or when contract constructions permit interruptible load.
Nonetheless, if curtailment turns into sporadic or grid dynamics shift hour to hour, uptime suffers, and efficient hash value declines.
Engie's “years to implement” remark suggests the corporate understands that bolt-on mining infrastructure requires engineering, not only a PPA signature.
What Brazil is definitely betting on
Brazil didn't get up and determine to change into a mining hub. It created a focused price discount for {hardware} that may monetize a structural grid drawback, and a state-owned utility publicly examined the narrative on the identical day.
The guess is narrower than it appears: can miners take up sufficient curtailed vitality to enhance generator economics with out destabilizing the grid or creating new political threat?
If the reply is sure, Brazil captures incremental hashrate with out subsidizing it straight: miners pay for energy, turbines get better misplaced income, and the ex-tariff removes friction.
If the reply is not any, the decision expires in January 2028, and the experiment ends. Both means, the coverage is time-bound, the economics are clear, and the dedication is reversible.
However choices have worth when the underlying situations align, and Brazil's situations are aligning.
Curtailment is rising, {hardware} prices simply dropped, and a serious generator is publicly pricing the trade-off.
The window is open by means of January 2028. What occurs subsequent is determined by whether or not sufficient miners acknowledge the opening earlier than it closes.
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