Julio Moreno, head of analysis at CryptoQuant, lately declared that Bitcoin is in a bear market that would prolong by way of the third quarter of 2026.
He's not alone. Matt Hougan at Bitwise and a rising refrain of institutional voices are utilizing the “bear” label extra freely than at any level since early 2023.
But the identical analysts usually hedge with construction: many establishments are holding or including publicity at the same time as they acknowledge the regime shift.
This creates a definitional downside. If a bear market now not means capitulation and exodus, what does it imply?
And if the well-known four-year cycle is useless, as VanEck, K33 Analysis, and 21Shares have every argued in latest stories, how lengthy does a bear market final when the outdated calendar now not applies?
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What configures a bear market
The standard finance definition for a bear market presents a place to begin.
The US Securities and Alternate Fee defines a bear market as a broad index falling 20% or extra over not less than two months. Bitcoin cleared that threshold months in the past.
From its early October 2025 peak above $126,000, BTC has declined by roughly 41% to roughly $74,000 as of Feb. 3. By the headline customary, the case is closed.
Nevertheless, Coinbase Institutional analysis explicitly calls the 20% threshold “considerably arbitrary” and fewer relevant to crypto, the place 20% swings can occur and not using a true regime change.
In follow, analysts depend on a three-part dashboard: value pattern, positioning and derivatives, and demand and liquidity.
Worth pattern is probably the most seen. CryptoQuant leans closely on the 365-day transferring common as a boundary marker.
Bitcoin at the moment trades beneath that stage, which sits round $101,448. CryptoQuant's Bull Rating Index, a composite measure of on-chain well being, registered 20 out of 100, described as excessive bear territory.
Coinbase has used the 200-day transferring common in previous cycle analyses to qualify bear regimes, and Bitcoin stays beneath that threshold as nicely.
Positioning and derivatives provide a second sign. Glassnode's latest Week On-Chain stories doc rotation towards draw back safety, bearish skew in choices markets, and circumstances that improve draw back sensitivity, together with supplier gamma beneath zero.
When merchants pay premiums to hedge towards additional declines relatively than to seize upside, the market is behaving defensively.
Demand and liquidity present the structural context. CoinShares estimates that enormous holders have offered roughly $29 billion in Bitcoin since October. Digital asset exchange-traded merchandise noticed roughly $440 million in year-to-date outflows.
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CryptoQuant and MarketWatch characterize the present regime as weak demand mixed with contracting stablecoin liquidity, traditional substances of a bear market.
The most recent Coinbase Institutional and Glassnode world investor survey, carried out from Dec. 10, 2025, to Jan. 12, 2026, discovered that 26% of establishments now describe the market as being within the bear part. The outcomes are up from simply 2% within the prior survey.
But the identical survey revealed that 62% of establishments held or elevated internet lengthy publicity since October, and 70% view Bitcoin as undervalued.
This disconnect is the defining function of the 2026 bear market. It's not about capitulation—it's about regime recognition whereas sustaining structural publicity.
The label “bear market” is changing into much less about who’s fleeing and extra about who remains to be shopping for, at the same time as sentiment stays horrible.
When does this bear market finish?
Defining the tip of a bear market requires readability about what “finish” means.
Probably the most rigorous method treats it as a regime shift relatively than a sense. Analysts determine three sensible triggers: pattern reclamation, demand inflection, and danger urge for food normalization.
Pattern reclaim happens when Bitcoin regains and holds above long-term transferring averages, such because the 200-day or 365-day, for a number of weeks.
Demand inflection means exchange-traded fund and exchange-traded product flows shift from subdued or unfavourable to sustained inflows, and large-holder distribution slows.
Threat urge for food normalization means choices skew returns to balanced ranges, with much less demand for draw back safety and leverage constructing sustainably.
The forward-looking situations cluster into three time horizons, every supported by particular analyst commentary.
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The primary situation is a traditional crypto winter that extends by way of mid or late 2026.
Julio Moreno has recognized $70,000 over three to 6 months and $56,000 within the second half of 2026 as a deeper potential path. This situation assumes demand stays weak, flows stay unfavourable, and Bitcoin fails repeated makes an attempt to reclaim its transferring averages. Bear-market rallies occur however fail to carry.
The second situation is a shorter, shallower bear market lasting three to 6 months, characterised by uneven, range-bound value motion, adopted by enhancing circumstances within the second half of 2026.
CoinShares explicitly expects a uneven three-to-six-month interval, with medium-term constructive circumstances as whale promoting exhausts by mid-2026.
On this framing, the bear market is extra about time than depth: a regime through which upside is capped till demand reverses, however the flooring holds.
The third situation treats the bear market as a liquidity-wave occasion relatively than a calendar-based cycle.
The bear ends when demand and liquidity re-accelerate, no matter what the halving clock says. This maps immediately onto CryptoQuant's demand-led framing and avoids determinism stemming from halving. It acknowledges that the outdated playbook could now not apply.
| Situation | Horizon | What it appears like | Main triggers to observe | What would invalidate it |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Basic winter (Moreno path) | Mid/late 2026 | Failed rallies; deeper retests | Sustained failure to reclaim 200D/365D; weak flows; persistent draw back hedging | Reclaim + maintain above MAs and flows flip sustainably constructive |
| Brief, shallow bear (CoinShares path) | 3–6 months | Vary-bound chop; capped upside | Stabilizing ETP flows; whale promoting slows/exhausts | Breakdown beneath key assist zones with rising liquidation stress |
| Liquidity-wave regime (publish 4-year cycle) | Variable | Ends when liquidity/demand turns, not a calendar | International liquidity proxies, actual yields, stablecoin liquidity, hedging demand | Liquidity improves however BTC nonetheless can’t reclaim lengthy MAs (suggests structural weak spot) |
Is that this bear market smaller than previous cycles?
The present drawdown of roughly 40% is already small in comparison with the stereotypical over 70% crypto winters of prior cycles.
Nevertheless, a number of analysts' draw back situations cluster round $55,000 to $60,000, implying a complete drawdown nearer to the mid-50% vary if realized.
That will nonetheless be smaller than historic extremes however significant sufficient to qualify as a bear market by any customary.
The market can also be more and more bifurcated. Bitcoin holds structural management, whereas a lot of the remainder of the crypto market performs far worse.
The Coinbase and Glassnode report emphasize this through dominance metrics and defensive positioning conduct. The 2026 market is Okay-shaped, and the “bear market” could have an effect on asset lessons erratically.
The four-year cycle is over, however what replaces it?
VanEck argued in 2025 that the four-year cycle had damaged and that the outdated playbook was much less dependable.
K33 Analysis printed a report titled “4-year cycle is useless, lengthy dwell the king,” which lays out why the regime modified.
21Shares describes the cycle as evolving, probably extending to 5 years, as liquidity waves lengthen and institutional participation deepens.
What replaces the four-year clock is a liquidity-and-flows clock. This contains actual yields, world liquidity impulses, flows of exchange-traded funds and exchange-traded merchandise, stablecoin liquidity, and hedging demand.
CoinShares explicitly frames Bitcoin's latest dislocation by way of relationships with valuable metals and macro liquidity. Coinbase and Glassnode emphasize a defensive derivatives posture as a real-time regime indicator.
The implication for bear market period is that bear markets could turn out to be extra frequent however much less extreme. As a substitute of existential winters, the market could expertise extra frequent regime drawdowns if institutional flows present a flooring.
Rallies can nonetheless fail till demand and liquidity flip, however the underlying construction could forestall the sort of multi-year capitulation that has outlined previous cycles.
This creates a paradox. The bear market could last more in calendar time however inflict much less harm in proportion phrases. Or it could finish sooner if demand inflects earlier than the outdated cycle logic would predict.
Both method, the clock that ruled Bitcoin for a decade now not governs it.
The guidelines issues greater than the calendar
In 2026, calling a bear market isn't one metric, however a guidelines.
Pattern breaks, hedging demand, and a demand-liquidity rollover all level in the identical course. Bitcoin is in a bear regime by most frameworks that matter.
When it ends relies upon much less on the halving calendar and extra on the timing of the demand cycle. CoinShares expects three to 6 months of chop. CryptoQuant sees potential for deeper lows within the second half of the yr.
Each may very well be proper at completely different moments if the regime oscillates relatively than resolves cleanly.
The four-year cycle is useless, however the query of when this bear ends will not be unanswerable. It ends when Bitcoin reclaims its long-term transferring averages, when institutional flows flip constructive, and when choices markets cease pricing for cover.
Till then, the market is in a regime the place upside is capped, and endurance is required. Even when establishments hold shopping for whereas calling it a bear.
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