Blockchain analytics agency Glassnode warned on Monday that XRP’s on-chain market construction mirrors the precise cost-basis configuration noticed earlier than a 60% worth collapse in 2022.
XRP is buying and selling at $1.91, down 4.74% prior to now 24 hours.
The sign facilities on the holder’s price foundation. Wallets lively within the 1-week to 1-month window are actually accumulating under the realized worth of the 6-month to 12-month cohort. Newer consumers maintain at cheaper entry factors whereas mid-term holders sit underwater or close to breakeven.
This relationship creates overhead provide. When spot approaches the mid-term cohort’s price foundation, that group turns into wanting to de-risk into any rally. February 2022 confirmed the end result: XRP ran from $0.60 to $0.88 within the first week, then collapsed 60% to $0.30 by mid-year following the Terra implosion and broader macro deterioration.
The $2 Behavioral Threshold
Glassnode recognized $2.00 as a degree above the technical degree. In accordance with the agency’s November 2025 evaluation, every retest of $2 since early 2025 triggered $500 million to $1.2 billion in weekly realized losses. Holders persistently capitulated into power at this zone.
The present market construction for XRP carefully resembles that of February 2022.
Buyers lively over the 1W–1M window are actually accumulating under the price foundation of the 6M–12M cohort.
As this construction persists, psychological strain on prime consumers continues to construct over time.… https://t.co/8sGXQ8JKnp pic.twitter.com/cQoeFGuQl4— glassnode (@glassnode) January 19, 2026
XRP breached $2.40 in early January, up 25% in every week. It has since retreated under $2.00. The sample is acquainted. The token is now buying and selling under its 20-, 50-, 100-, and 200-day shifting averages.
The Counter-Knowledge
Constructive indicators exist. XRP ETFs have absorbed $1.37 billion in cumulative inflows since their November 2025 launch, with 35 consecutive buying and selling days with out a single outflow, adopted by a modest $40.8 million redemption on January 7. Complete AUM sits close to $2 billion with over 788 million XRP locked in custody.
Change reserves dropped from 3.76 billion XRP in early October 2025 to roughly 1.6 billion by late December, the bottom since 2018. ETF creations require spot purchases, which take away tokens from the obtainable float.
But, inflows haven’t prevented drawdowns. XRP fell 15% in December regardless of document institutional shopping for. Change stability information reveals 206 million XRP (roughly $430 million) moved onto platforms since January started, indicating distribution.
What Desks Are Watching
The February 2022 analog raises a particular query: can ETF-driven provide absorption offset the capitulation mechanics that Glassnode describes? Again then, no spot ETF product existed. Retail holders folded underneath macro strain with no institutional bid to soak up provide.
This cycle is structurally completely different. 5 main issuers (Canary Capital, Bitwise, Franklin Templeton, Grayscale, 21Shares) serve pension funds and endowments. Their constant accumulation has tightened circulating float, and every $1 billion in inflows locks roughly 500 million XRP. However the hole between mid-term and short-term price bases stays.
If $2.00 fails to carry, the 6-12 month cohort enters deeper loss territory. The $1.80 assist degree turns into the subsequent line of assist. Failure there opens draw back towards $1.25, the deeper assist zone recognized by analysts. A sustained break above $2.40 would invalidate the bearish setup and shift focus towards $3.00 resistance.
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