On Dec. 3, CryptoQuant CEO Ki Younger Ju made the dreaded name that “most Bitcoin on-chain indicators are bearish.”
He added, “With out macro liquidity, we enter a bear cycle.”
The CEO was express. He tied his argument to his agency’s composite on-chain dashboards and a global-liquidity framework, framing the November drawdown not as a wholesome correction however because the opening act of a brand new secular downtrend.
The query is whether or not on-chain information and the liquidity backdrop really assist a bear cycle thesis, or whether or not Ki is studying stress alerts in a bull market as the beginning of crypto winter.
The case for a brand new bear cycle
CryptoQuant’s metrics, comparable to Bull Rating, MVRV, miner flows, and stablecoin liquidity, sign a brand new bear-market cycle. The numbers examine with the primary quarter of 2022, which Glassnode additionally reported on Dec. 3.
Moreover, excessive realized losses, declining liquidity, and a break beneath short-term holder value foundation add to the hectic state of affairs.
Beginning with MVRV (market worth to realized worth), which is a ratio that compares Bitcoin’s market cap to its realized cap and weights every coin by the value at which it final moved on-chain.
When MVRV pushes above 3.5, the market is traditionally in euphoria territory. When it falls beneath 1.0, the market is buying and selling beneath its combination value foundation and is often at a bear market backside.
As of press time, MVRV sits round 1.8-2.0. That’s effectively off euphoric highs but additionally effectively above the sub-1.0 ranges that marked the bottoms in 2018, 2020, and 2022.
The bear cycle camp reads this as a market that has cooled however has not but reached the deep worth zone. If MVRV compresses towards 1.0, that might affirm a basic bear trajectory.
The SOPR (spent output revenue ratio) tells an identical story. SOPR measures whether or not on-chain cash are being bought at a revenue or a loss.
When SOPR is above 1.0, the common coin bought is worthwhile. When it drops beneath 1.0, the common coin is underwater.
November’s sell-off pushed SOPR beneath 1.0 for the primary time since summer time, signaling that short-term holders have been realizing losses.
The depth and length have some analysts evaluating it to early 2022, when SOPR stayed suppressed for months.
The RHODL (realized cap HODL) waves break down Bitcoin’s realized cap by age cohorts. When long-term holders begin spending at elevated charges, it sometimes alerts a high.
Latest RHODL information present long-term holder provide has been declining since mid-year, a sample in step with distribution into power.
The November correction accelerated that pattern, with older cohorts transferring cash on-chain at costs above $90,000.
Miner flows add one other layer. Miners are structurally lengthy Bitcoin and have a tendency to carry throughout bull markets. When miner outflows spike, it alerts stress.
CryptoQuant’s miner reserve information exhibits reserves have been declining since October, and miner pockets balances hit multi-year lows in late November.
Lastly, stablecoin liquidity. The bear cycle camp factors to declining stablecoin provide on exchanges as an indication that dry powder is leaving the system. The full stablecoin market cap has been flat to down since mid-November.
With out recent fiat-backed liquidity prepared to purchase dips, Bitcoin lacks gasoline for one more leg up.
The center floor: deep correction, not secular bear
Others see the identical stress however cease in need of calling a accomplished cycle high.
SOPR, realized-price bands, and MVRV are now not in an euphoric zone. But, traditionally, classical bear market bottoms happen a lot nearer to the mixture realized value than as we speak’s ranges.
Moreover, ETF outflows and diminished stablecoin liquidity helped drive the worst two-month drawdown since mid-2022. But, Glassnode’s MVRV Z-Rating continues to be not in oversold territory, and whale accumulation round $90,000 suggests the market is at an inflection level moderately than clearly in a brand new secular downtrend.
This camp acknowledges the symptoms have cooled however argues the market continues to be structurally totally different from prior bear cycles. Bitcoin has not damaged its combination realized value, which sits round $50,000 to $55,000.
Derivatives open curiosity reset from $46 billion to $28 billion, flushing out overleveraged longs and setting the stage for a cleaner rally if liquidity improves.
The bull market reset thesis
A Glassnode-based roundup framed the late-November drop into the low-$80,000s as “2025’s strongest BTC purchase zone,” noting dense realized-price clusters the place long-term holders re-added publicity after pressured liquidations and derivatives open curiosity washed out.
Trakx’s Nov. 28 month-to-month assessment says November’s slide “seems to be like a standard bull cycle pullback, not a brand new bear market,” arguing that so long as world liquidity continues to rise, the broader digital-asset bull pattern ought to stay intact.
Moreover, open curiosity has reset, and ETF inflows resumed with a modest $50 million aggregated web influx for December as of Dec. 3.
On this backdrop, a rising stablecoin provide might assist a push again via the $93,000 to $96,000 resistance zone if the Fed delivers.
World web liquidity: the lacking variable
That is the place Ki’s name hinges. He argues that “with out macro liquidity, we enter a bear cycle,” explicitly tying on-chain stress to a deteriorating liquidity backdrop.
A Sahm Capital piece on Nov. 25 pressured that, in contrast to prior cycles, world web liquidity has been falling for years below the burden of inflation, price hikes, and quantitative tightening, which has “suppressed cash movement and upside potential all through this cycle.”
I/O Fund’s Beth Kindig wrote this week that their mannequin exhibits world liquidity stalling and “organising for a reversal,” a sample they are saying traditionally aligns with main Bitcoin tops and suggests we’re within the remaining leg of the multi-year bull moderately than the early innings.
On the opposite facet, Bitwise’s early-December outlook argues that world liquidity development “stays sturdy” and that valuations present “no proof of a blow-off section,” explicitly utilizing that to reject a full bear-market transition.
Glassnode’s new institutional observe for the fourth quarter with Fasanara provides a extra impartial take: Bitcoin has retraced as world liquidity tightens, however the report focuses on shifting market construction moderately than declaring a definitive macro high.
The decision: conditional bear, not confirmed
The on-chain information exhibits stress. MVRV has cooled, SOPR has dipped beneath 1.0, long-term holders have distributed, miners have bought reserves, and stablecoin liquidity has stalled.
These are all in step with the opening section of a bear market.
However they’re additionally in step with a deep correction inside a bull market, particularly one through which leverage was excessive and ETF flows have been risky.
The important thing distinction is what occurs subsequent with liquidity.
If world web liquidity continues to contract and the Fed holds charges increased for longer, Ki’s bear cycle thesis beneficial properties weight. If liquidity stabilizes or rebounds and ETF inflows resume, the bull reset camp wins.
Proper now, the info suggests Bitcoin is at an inflection level, not a confirmed high. The on-chain indicators are flashing yellow, not pink. And the liquidity backdrop is contested, with credible voices on either side.
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