Latest knowledge from CryptoQuant reveals that Bitcoin has seen a surge in whale inflows to Binance, reaching $7.5B despatched to the centralized change over the previous 30 days, the very best degree ever recorded in a calendar yr.
CryptoQuant analyst Maartunn stated the present spike in whale inflows is much like patterns seen in March 2025, when Bitcoin moved from round $102K to the low $70K vary.
“In these conditions, whales usually ship funds to exchanges both to take revenue or to handle danger when the market weakens. With the 30-day influx measure nonetheless climbing, the information doesn’t but recommend that promoting strain has stabilized,” he added.
Whale Inflows to Binance Hit $7.5B — a New Yearly Excessive
“The present spike in inflows is much like patterns seen in earlier high-volatility intervals, corresponding to March 2025, when Bitcoin moved from round $102K to the low $70K.” – By @JA_Maartun pic.twitter.com/Esprsxd516— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) November 27, 2025
For buyers, this implies the chance zone for Bitcoin has not absolutely cleared, and the market stays too fragile to find out whether or not a pattern reversal is imminent or if Bitcoin will proceed visiting the lows to set off a long-term bear market.
Bitcoin November Crash Mirrors 2021 Bear Market, Not 2023 Dip
Ki Younger Ju, Founder and CEO at CryptoQuant, identified that “Bitcoin on-chain indicators are bearish, and additional upside doubtless relies on macro liquidity.“
Knowledgeable Bitcoin and Commodities Investor G. Martín believes the $126,000 excessive in October has doubtless printed Bitcoin’s post-halving prime, and the present transfer seems much less like a dip and extra like the beginning of a conventional bear market.
In his Substack submit titled “Bitcoin is in a Bear Market,” Martín argued that the October 10 de-leveraging occasion, which noticed $19 billion wiped from the crypto market, was extra much like the 2021-2022 early bear market stage moderately than the 2023 bull market OI flush.
“We will clearly see how the pattern is lastly damaged, and OI is beginning to choose up once more, which may imply merchants are positioning for decrease costs,” he stated.
Martín added that the final two months, throughout which Bitcoin fell from $126k to $80k, present how a lot asset costs are pushed by sentiment, greed, and worry, not simply fundamentals.
He described Bitcoin as an asset with no money flows whose value is especially pushed by liquidity and propelled by new narratives every cycle.
“Over the past six months, 95% of retail purchased Bitcoin with a median price of ~$115k, principally in the course of the ‘Crypto President Trump’ euphoria. Few stopped to think about that we had already gone via a +700% bull run over three years,” he stated.
When BTC value was chopping round $100k, the narratives felt much less like rational evaluation and extra like denial. “It appeared folks weren’t really bullish; as an alternative, they have been scared as a result of their entry value was underwater,” Martín concluded.
Martín recognized Michael Saylor’s Technique’s MSTR mNAV as an important indicator for a Bitcoin-led bear market, noting it’s now behaving equally to the early levels of the 2021–2022 bear market.
Fed Charge Cuts Received’t Save Bitcoin -Analyst Warns
Martín additionally addressed the Fed price minimize expectation in December, which many view as bullish for a Bitcoin Santa rally as QT ends subsequent week.
Bitcoin could slip to $60K – $80K if the Fed holds charges regular, however analysts name it a “wholesome recalibration", not a brand new crypto winter.#Bitcoin #InterestRates #Fedhttps://t.co/Mheh7KZH9T
— Cryptonews.com (@cryptonews) November 24, 2025
He defined that if the Fed reduces its stability sheet from long-term holdings, capital to purchase these belongings will come from the non-public sector, draining liquidity from markets.
“Charge cuts might be optimistic for the economic system normally, however not essentially bullish for Bitcoin,” he stated.
He believes present Fed insurance policies may finish the Bitcoin 4-year cycle and see the asset backside out in late 2026 when liquidity returns.
In response to his evaluation, Bitcoin should reclaim a number of main resistances after November’s selloff to mark a correct backside round its 200-Week SMA earlier than a bullish rally can resume.
On this situation, Bitcoin may doubtless revisit the $73k and even $70k lows, adopted by a reduction rally towards $95k–$105k within the mid-term.
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