The Binance Bitcoin (BTC) outflow metric exhibits that merchants now want to carry reasonably than promote, which generally aligns with accumulation phases in market cycles.
Whereas each day Bitcoin inflows and outflows alone might not inform the total story of whether or not the market is on the fringe of a breakout towards $130k, information from CryptoQuant exhibits that the 30-day shifting common (SMA30) has been strongly unfavorable in current weeks.
Promoting Strain Fades as Binance Netflow Turns Sharply Damaging
“This implies that traders want holding over promoting, which generally aligns with accumulation phases in market cycles.” – By @burak_kesmeci pic.twitter.com/gxN48Jhc2v— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) October 21, 2025
This implies that traders during the last 30 days are offloading their Bitcoin holdings from exchanges and accumulating forward of a possible rally in the direction of $130k, earlier than the top of 2025.
Bitcoin’s MVRV Ratio Indicators Cyclical Backside Formation
The buildup sample aligns with Bitcoin’s MVRV Ratio slipping under its 365-day common to mark a cyclical backside formation.
Shayan Markets notes that earlier drops under this threshold in mid-2021, June 2022, and early 2024 all marked native bottoms and powerful shopping for alternatives.
The present positioning suggests Bitcoin has entered an undervaluation zone with diminished speculative extra, sometimes when long-term holders start accumulating.
“If this metric begins to show upward from present ranges, it might affirm that the current sell-off was a cyclical backside formation, supporting a renewed bullish part into This autumn,” the analyst added.
Supporting this view, Glassnode information reveal a 3:1 ratio of dormant Bitcoin (unmoved for one 12 months) to cash traded within the final three months, indicating sturdy holder conviction regardless of present market uncertainty.
Bulls Present Indicators of Exhaustion
Nonetheless, Bitcoin’s present value motion exhibits some indicators of weak point and exhaustion from the bulls.
The bulls had two makes an attempt to regain management on October 13 and October 20, however each failed.
Bitcoin rose from liquidation lows of $102k to round $111k yesterday, however opened October twenty first with a drop again to essential help round $107k.
This sudden slip has reversed the bullish divergence formation, and Bitcoin is now exhibiting hidden bearish divergence.
Crypto analyst Ted Pillows believes the current drop is a liquidity necessity as Bitcoin got here very near filling its CME hole.
Ranges between $107,200-$107,400 will most definitely be stuffed earlier than the US market opens.
In response to him, “after that, Bitcoin might present a bounce again, however I’m not anticipating any main rally.”
Path to $130K Requires Break Above $120K
From a structural standpoint, Shawn Younger, Chief Analyst at MEXC Analysis, instructed Cryptonews that the demand for Bitcoin derivatives now seems extra sustainable.
Nonetheless, he acknowledged that BTC nonetheless appears to be in a downward development throughout many short-term time frames and desires to interrupt above $120,000 once more to invalidate the bearish setups.
“Ought to BTC proceed to carry above the $110,000 help zone, we might see momentum rebuild towards retesting and breaching $126,000, a transfer which unlocks the trail to $130,000 because the market re-prices development expectations,” he stated.
On the technical entrance, the weekly Bitcoin (BTC/USD) chart exhibits the value hovering round $108,350, slightly below the important thing help area marked by the orange zone, which has acted as a mid-range degree since early summer time.
The inexperienced 21-week shifting common line, representing the short-term development, has flattened, indicating a slowdown in bullish momentum, whereas current candles recommend sellers are testing this help repeatedly.
The $108,000–$109,000 zone now serves as a essential pivot; a weekly shut under it could affirm a breakdown, doubtlessly triggering a deeper pullback towards the following main help close to $103,000.
Conversely, if Bitcoin can maintain this degree and reclaim the 21-week MA, it might reattempt resistance close to $123,500.
The approaching weekly shut might be decisive in figuring out whether or not BTC confirms a breakdown or stabilizes for an additional leg upward.
The submit Binance Outflows Surge as Merchants Select to Maintain As a substitute of Promote — $130K BTC Subsequent? appeared first on Cryptonews.